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Showing posts with label CityDev. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CityDev. Show all posts
Monday, September 14, 2009
CDL Hospitality Trust - Time for a breather
CDLHT's current share price of S$1.47 has exceeded its book value per share of S$1.42 while yields of 5.5% are lower than the REIT average of 8.2%. Even though Singapore's tourism indicators continue to improve and we have bullish above-consensus estimates for CDLHT, we believe most of the positives are in its share price and downgrade it to Neutral from Outperform. Our estimates and DDM-based target price of S$1.41 are unchanged. PLife REIT appears a cheaper and safe alternative at 0.8x P/V with forward yields of 6.8%.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
City Development - Waiting for the Red Candle
After a meteoric rise in its share price, we think CDL may be due for a pull back soon. The recent surge in price is from the low of about $8.00 and after 6 days of price surge, notice the volume is abating as people gradually lose interest in the counter. The recent high of $10.00 acts as its resistance and while there is a chance to trade beyond $10, notice how each time after it rises rapidly, there is almost always a subsequent pull back shortly.
Just hitting a resistance of $10 is inadequate to call for a short. We seek bearish formation in the charts. Traders interested to short CDL, look out for the appearance of the type of candles circled in yellow. We think a relatively strong retracement could take it down by nearly a dollar to about $9.00.
The technical analysis is invalidated if the counter continues to trade above $10.00 with strong volume and/or subsequently forms a consolidation above $10.00.
Just hitting a resistance of $10 is inadequate to call for a short. We seek bearish formation in the charts. Traders interested to short CDL, look out for the appearance of the type of candles circled in yellow. We think a relatively strong retracement could take it down by nearly a dollar to about $9.00.
The technical analysis is invalidated if the counter continues to trade above $10.00 with strong volume and/or subsequently forms a consolidation above $10.00.
Friday, July 17, 2009
City Developments - Positive breakout from key resistance could mean further upside potential
City Development could see further upside potential after breaking above both the 30-day and 50-day MA and the S$8.56 key support-turned- resistance level via the formation of a breakaway gap on heavy volume.
With the RSI indicating a bullish divergence to the price action over the last 3 weeks and the MACD exhibiting a sharp bullish crossover yesterday, they suggest that the downside momentum might have waned.
A technical correction to retest the S$8.56 resistance-turned-support level is likely but a successful retest at this support could confirm and form a base for the next leg of recovery.
However, should the 30-day MA cross under the 50-day MA, this breakout could be a false one.
But should it be confirmed, we expect the stock to test the initial resistance at S$9.75 (support-turned-resistance level and 2-year downtrend line), breaking which, the next resistance is at S$10.70 (minor peaks in Aug ‘08).
Beyond the key S$8.56 support, the next support could be found at S$7.80 (minor troughs in May and Jul ‘09).
With the RSI indicating a bullish divergence to the price action over the last 3 weeks and the MACD exhibiting a sharp bullish crossover yesterday, they suggest that the downside momentum might have waned.
A technical correction to retest the S$8.56 resistance-turned-support level is likely but a successful retest at this support could confirm and form a base for the next leg of recovery.
However, should the 30-day MA cross under the 50-day MA, this breakout could be a false one.
But should it be confirmed, we expect the stock to test the initial resistance at S$9.75 (support-turned-resistance level and 2-year downtrend line), breaking which, the next resistance is at S$10.70 (minor peaks in Aug ‘08).
Beyond the key S$8.56 support, the next support could be found at S$7.80 (minor troughs in May and Jul ‘09).
Thursday, July 2, 2009
CDL HTrust - Stalling of rally at key resistance heralds possible near-term downside
CDL Hospitality Trust could be facing more near term downside as the price seems to have stalled at its key $0.845 resistance (also hit the upper Bollinger band) on relatively high volume. A lower close today would confirm the bearish price reversal.
And downside momentum looks set to accelerate in the near term. The RSI has already turned down just shy of the overbought region while the stochastic indicator is about to make a negative crossover inside the overbought region. The Accumulation/Distribution indicator also made a sharp bearish reversal yesterday.
We expect the stock to find initial support at $0.79 (2-month uptrend line and centre Bollinger band), breaking which, the next key support is likely at $0.72 (minor troughs in May ’09 and Jun ’09 and lower Bollinger band).
Above the $0.845 key resistance, we see $0.92 (minor peak in Oct ’08) as the next resistance.
And downside momentum looks set to accelerate in the near term. The RSI has already turned down just shy of the overbought region while the stochastic indicator is about to make a negative crossover inside the overbought region. The Accumulation/Distribution indicator also made a sharp bearish reversal yesterday.
We expect the stock to find initial support at $0.79 (2-month uptrend line and centre Bollinger band), breaking which, the next key support is likely at $0.72 (minor troughs in May ’09 and Jun ’09 and lower Bollinger band).
Above the $0.845 key resistance, we see $0.92 (minor peak in Oct ’08) as the next resistance.
Thursday, May 14, 2009
CityDev – Look for pullback to $7.63
After a decent run, we foresee some price weakness ahead for CityDev as suggested by the MACD Diff trend. On charts, CityDev has established a trading range between $7.63 and $8.63; the lower boundary also coincides with CityDev’s consensus RNAV of $7.60. We need to first see if $7.63 will hold; on the scenario that it fails, expect more downside on CityDev as gap covering will occur.
Trading Idea: 1Q09 results (net profit $83m) were below consensus of $100- 110m. CDL saw weaknesses in the hotel division (via M&C) and residential developments, which was partially offset by higher rental income from commercial properties. On valuation, stock has risen by more than 100% from March lows of $4.05 and appears overbought in the short term. Barring further uplift in prices in the physical market, we expect stock to pull back. We remain buyers of the stock below $7.60.
Trading Idea: 1Q09 results (net profit $83m) were below consensus of $100- 110m. CDL saw weaknesses in the hotel division (via M&C) and residential developments, which was partially offset by higher rental income from commercial properties. On valuation, stock has risen by more than 100% from March lows of $4.05 and appears overbought in the short term. Barring further uplift in prices in the physical market, we expect stock to pull back. We remain buyers of the stock below $7.60.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Technically sell UOB, SGX, CityDev
United Overseas Bank (UOB SP; S$9.60) – SELL
• Yesterday’s steep pullback was close to testing its 23.6% FR at S$9.47. Watch out for this level, as a break down would have a catastrophic effect on the stock. If it fails to hold, the next downside target is weak at S$8.80 and S$8.07 (Mar lows).
• Only a claw back above yesterday’s high of S$10.12 would put a stop to this bloodbath. Judging from the chart, we still favour a sell into strength strategy. Next resistance is at S$10.34 and S$11.04.
• MACD is losing momentum while RSI has turned south again. The deteriorating technical landscape has also spilled over to the weekly chart, suggesting more room to the downside. Next support is S$8.82 and S$8.40.
United Overseas Bank Limited offers a full range of commercial banking and financial services. The Company offers private banking, trust services, venture capital investment, merchant banking, brokerage services, insurance, fund management, derivatives trading, precious metal trading, factoring, hire purchase, and life insurance.
Singapore Exchange (SGX SP; S$5.10) – SELL
• Although the stock has broken out of its medium term downtrend channel lately, we are not convinced with the breakout. If the candlesticks fail to hold above the support trend line at S$4.96, expect further selldown towards the next support at S$4.75 and S$4.64.
• Indicators are showing signs of bearishness. MACD is losing momentum while RSI has also hooked down.
• Investors should do well selling into strength for now, possibly near its resistances at S$5.35-S$5.47.
Singapore Exchange Limited owns and operates Singapore's Securities and derivatives exchange and their related clearing houses. The Company also provides ancillary securities processing and information technology services to participants in the financial sector.
City Developments (CIT SP; S$4.98) – SELL
• The stock is still languished in its medium term downtrend channel despite having bounced off its Mar lows of S$4.05. If it fails to penetrate above S$5.46 resistance over the next two days, chances are it will crack below the 30-day SMA at S$4.85.
• MACD is losing momentum. Meanwhile, the easing RSI indicator is also a reflection that buyers are losing steam.
• If the 30-day SMA fails to hold, we expect the stock to test the next support at S$4.61 and S$4.27. Sell into strength for now. However, any significant pullback towards the support zone may be an opportunity to accumulate.
City Developments Limited develops and owns properties. Through its subsidiaries, the Company owns and operates hotels, operates clubs, invests in properties and shares, manages properties and projects, as well as provides information technology and procurement services.
• Yesterday’s steep pullback was close to testing its 23.6% FR at S$9.47. Watch out for this level, as a break down would have a catastrophic effect on the stock. If it fails to hold, the next downside target is weak at S$8.80 and S$8.07 (Mar lows).
• Only a claw back above yesterday’s high of S$10.12 would put a stop to this bloodbath. Judging from the chart, we still favour a sell into strength strategy. Next resistance is at S$10.34 and S$11.04.
• MACD is losing momentum while RSI has turned south again. The deteriorating technical landscape has also spilled over to the weekly chart, suggesting more room to the downside. Next support is S$8.82 and S$8.40.
United Overseas Bank Limited offers a full range of commercial banking and financial services. The Company offers private banking, trust services, venture capital investment, merchant banking, brokerage services, insurance, fund management, derivatives trading, precious metal trading, factoring, hire purchase, and life insurance.
Singapore Exchange (SGX SP; S$5.10) – SELL
• Although the stock has broken out of its medium term downtrend channel lately, we are not convinced with the breakout. If the candlesticks fail to hold above the support trend line at S$4.96, expect further selldown towards the next support at S$4.75 and S$4.64.
• Indicators are showing signs of bearishness. MACD is losing momentum while RSI has also hooked down.
• Investors should do well selling into strength for now, possibly near its resistances at S$5.35-S$5.47.
Singapore Exchange Limited owns and operates Singapore's Securities and derivatives exchange and their related clearing houses. The Company also provides ancillary securities processing and information technology services to participants in the financial sector.
City Developments (CIT SP; S$4.98) – SELL
• The stock is still languished in its medium term downtrend channel despite having bounced off its Mar lows of S$4.05. If it fails to penetrate above S$5.46 resistance over the next two days, chances are it will crack below the 30-day SMA at S$4.85.
• MACD is losing momentum. Meanwhile, the easing RSI indicator is also a reflection that buyers are losing steam.
• If the 30-day SMA fails to hold, we expect the stock to test the next support at S$4.61 and S$4.27. Sell into strength for now. However, any significant pullback towards the support zone may be an opportunity to accumulate.
City Developments Limited develops and owns properties. Through its subsidiaries, the Company owns and operates hotels, operates clubs, invests in properties and shares, manages properties and projects, as well as provides information technology and procurement services.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Friday, March 20, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
CitiDev - HTF Formation
CITYDEV = $5.03 = HTF Formation, a breakout of this formation is very bullish
Monday, March 16, 2009
Technical view on Capitaland and Citi Dev
CapitaLand
Over the past 2 days, the S&P 500 has rallied strongly. The STI followed suit after marginally breaking long term lows. This move up by the STI has taken Capitaland up with it. Short-term momentum has been decisively strong, closing above the 200 period moving average for the 1 hour charts.
Price is moving angling away from the 30 and 50 period average quickly, indicating the possibility of a fast move in play. We recommend going long in the first hour of trading if Capitaland continues to rally. Price targets are at S$2.26 and S$2.35. Recommended stop is around S$2.00 to S$2.02.
City Dev
City Dev has also risen sharply with the STI over the past few days of trading. Today City Dev gapped up on the open before rallying higher for the day. Breakaway gapssuch as these are indicative of strong buying momentum.
It has also angled away sharply from the 30 and 50 period averages and tested the200 period. We recommend going long on close above S$4.93 with stop at S$4.70.
This would be a bet that current momentum will be continuing upward. If a sharpmove is truly in play, price should not retrace to S$4.70. There is resistance at S$5.50 and we recommend taking profits slightly under thatlevel, at S$5.48.
Over the past 2 days, the S&P 500 has rallied strongly. The STI followed suit after marginally breaking long term lows. This move up by the STI has taken Capitaland up with it. Short-term momentum has been decisively strong, closing above the 200 period moving average for the 1 hour charts.
Price is moving angling away from the 30 and 50 period average quickly, indicating the possibility of a fast move in play. We recommend going long in the first hour of trading if Capitaland continues to rally. Price targets are at S$2.26 and S$2.35. Recommended stop is around S$2.00 to S$2.02.
City Dev
City Dev has also risen sharply with the STI over the past few days of trading. Today City Dev gapped up on the open before rallying higher for the day. Breakaway gapssuch as these are indicative of strong buying momentum.
It has also angled away sharply from the 30 and 50 period averages and tested the200 period. We recommend going long on close above S$4.93 with stop at S$4.70.
This would be a bet that current momentum will be continuing upward. If a sharpmove is truly in play, price should not retrace to S$4.70. There is resistance at S$5.50 and we recommend taking profits slightly under thatlevel, at S$5.48.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Friday, March 6, 2009
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Sell City and HK Land Technically
Technically…
City Developments (CIT SP; S$5.09 – SELL): Recent low of S$4.82 may be retested soon. Break below that level could see S$4.70/S$4.46 being tested next.
• The stock broke below its S$5.13 support recently and is still below it. Unless the stock can close back above it, more selling could take place soon. Maintain sell on strength with resistance seen at S$5.15 and S$5.55.
• Indicators are improving but have yet to confirm the turnaround. RSI is still below its neutral mark and MACD is still negative.
• The recent low at S$4.82 could be tested again soon. A break below that level could see the stock fall to S$4.70 and 4.46 next.
Hongkong Land Holdings (HKL SP; US$2.00 – SELL): Selling momentum may pick up as MACD and RSI have turned negative. Close below US$1.88 could see next support at US$1.75/US41.50 being tested.
• Appears to be sitting just above forming its consolidation triangle support at US$2.00. A downside break to close below US$1.88 would likely induce further selling on the stock. The next support is at US$1.78 and US$1.50.
• Both MACD and RSI have turned negative, suggesting that the selling momentum could be picking up.
• Resistance is seen at US$2.20 and US$2.55.
Fundamentally…
Action Asia (ACTA SP; S$0.055 – Not rated): FY08 results are due by end this week. Given its last announced net cash balance of S$40.9m and that the Company has not paid any dividends for the three quarters of FY08, a DPS of 0.2-0.5cts seems a reasonable assumption. This translates into dividend yields of 3.6%-9.1%. Note that its net cash position is 1.9x its market cap of S$22.0m. Not rated.
• The stock has fallen below its long term sideways trend channel. Unless, the stock can regain the S$0.06 resistance soon, the stock could see more downside. Support is at S$0.04.
• Technical indicators continue to show mixed results, suggesting that more sideways movement is likely.
• Until there is a pick up in volume, the stock would likely continue to drift sideways. Investors would likely do well to sell out and look for opportunities elsewhere.
City Developments (CIT SP; S$5.09 – SELL): Recent low of S$4.82 may be retested soon. Break below that level could see S$4.70/S$4.46 being tested next.
• The stock broke below its S$5.13 support recently and is still below it. Unless the stock can close back above it, more selling could take place soon. Maintain sell on strength with resistance seen at S$5.15 and S$5.55.
• Indicators are improving but have yet to confirm the turnaround. RSI is still below its neutral mark and MACD is still negative.
• The recent low at S$4.82 could be tested again soon. A break below that level could see the stock fall to S$4.70 and 4.46 next.
Hongkong Land Holdings (HKL SP; US$2.00 – SELL): Selling momentum may pick up as MACD and RSI have turned negative. Close below US$1.88 could see next support at US$1.75/US41.50 being tested.
• Appears to be sitting just above forming its consolidation triangle support at US$2.00. A downside break to close below US$1.88 would likely induce further selling on the stock. The next support is at US$1.78 and US$1.50.
• Both MACD and RSI have turned negative, suggesting that the selling momentum could be picking up.
• Resistance is seen at US$2.20 and US$2.55.
Fundamentally…
Action Asia (ACTA SP; S$0.055 – Not rated): FY08 results are due by end this week. Given its last announced net cash balance of S$40.9m and that the Company has not paid any dividends for the three quarters of FY08, a DPS of 0.2-0.5cts seems a reasonable assumption. This translates into dividend yields of 3.6%-9.1%. Note that its net cash position is 1.9x its market cap of S$22.0m. Not rated.
• The stock has fallen below its long term sideways trend channel. Unless, the stock can regain the S$0.06 resistance soon, the stock could see more downside. Support is at S$0.04.
• Technical indicators continue to show mixed results, suggesting that more sideways movement is likely.
• Until there is a pick up in volume, the stock would likely continue to drift sideways. Investors would likely do well to sell out and look for opportunities elsewhere.
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
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