Technically buy IndoFood Agri, Golden-Agri, Kencana Agri

IndoFood Agri Resources (IFAR SP; S$1.52) – BUY

• The stock rallied sharply after breaking out of its bullish flag pattern in the middle of July. It has tested the May highs of S$1.49 yesterday and managed to breakout above it.

• The new-year highs however were not accompanied by new highs in its indicators. The MACD is positive but is nowhere near the highs in May. This suggests that investors should be wary of buying now. Its RSI is now overbought suggesting that a short term pullback is likely.

• Prices could adjust downwards slightly to neutralise the overbought RSI soon. Buy on weakness with support seen at S$1.36 and S$1.27. Upside resistance is seen at S$1.60 and S$1.74.

Indofood Agri Resources Limited is an integrated agribusiness company. The Company and its subsidiaries are involved in research and development, oil palm seed breeding, oil palm cultivation and milling. Indofood Agri Resources also refines, brands and markets cooking oil, margarine, shortening and other palm oil products.

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP; S$0.415) – BUY

• The stock’s long term uptrend is still intact. It broke out of its short term downtrend channel last week and in now rallying to test the middle band resistance of its long term uptrend channel.

• Its indicators currently suggest that the stock is could kick on higher. However, in the short term, a minor retracement is likely as there is some selling pressure near the middle resistance.

• The stock is still a buy on weakness as long as prices stay above the 50-day SMA at S$0.37-0.375. A breakout above the middle band resistance at S$0.415 could see the stock push on towards S$0.455 and even S$0.50 next.

Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, and sells crude palm oil and palm kernel. The Company also refines crude palm oil into cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.

Kencana Agri (KAGR SP; S$0.315) – BUY

• The stock broke out of its consolidation pennant three weeks ago. It is now rallying after forming a base above its 30-day and 50-day SMA at S$0.27-0.28. The moving average now acts as strong support for the stock.

• Indicators have continued to improve and remain in buy mode. The upside resistance is seen at S$0.345, the May highs. A breakout above could see the stock test S$0.375, its high since inception.

• Aggressive investors may want to buy now but place a stop loss at S$0.265 or below. S$0.245 is the next support.

Kencana Agri Ltd. produces crude palm oil and crude palm kernel oil with oil palm plantation. The Company operates a bulking terminal and logistics services for storage and transportation purpose. Kencana Agri Ltd. also operates a renewable biomass power plant to generate electricity by utilizing waste recycled from the crude palm oil process.

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GoldenAgr - time to take profit

GoldenAgr=$0.355 (Reached yellowline at $0.36)

Golden Agri may consider to take profit

GoldenAgr=$0.32 (Near yellowline resistance, take profit)

GoldenAgr too much volume

Golden Agri - Fell from $0.40 to $0.295 within 7 trading days. Volume exploded to 161mln by midday. If "Volume kills trend", it should stage a technical rebound from here. Similarly, Indo Agri is also a potential technical rebound candidate.

Golden Agr - flag formation breakout + 200 DMA

GoldenAgr=$0.395 (Flag formation breakout + 200DMA...Target=$0.52)

Golden Agr and Indo Agri - after the pull back

GoldenAgr=$0.35 (After pullback from 200DMA......a flag formation has formed)


IndoAgri=$0.815 (like Golden Agri, it also is forming a flag formation)

Sell technically Golden Agri, Swiber, F&N

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP; S$0.36) – SELL

• Golden Agri (GGR) posted a dark cloud cover candle last week. It is also trading very near a cluster of resistances, which increases the chance of a reversal. S$0.385-0.40 and S$0.42 are strong resistances.

• Technical indicators are starting to weaken with the MACD and RSI hooking downwards. RSI has also issued a sell signal last week.

• Any rebound towards the resistance levels should be seen as a chance to sell. Immediate support is at S$0.35, but we do not expect this level to hold.Stronger support is at S$0.32 and S$0.29.

Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, and sells crude palm oil and palm kernel. The Company also refines crude palm oil into cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.

Swiber Holdings (SWIB SP; S$0.515) – SELL

• Appears to be hitting robust resistances. The bearish implication of last Thursday’s candle would likely be felt soon. Take profits now as resistance at S$0.525 and S$0.56 is likely to cap any more upside for now.

• MACD is flattening out suggesting that the buying momentum is starting to ease. RSI has hooked up again but is still below its previous highs.

• A break below the S$0.495 could see more selling pressure set in. The next support is at S$0.445 and S$0.385.

Swiber Holdings Limited is an offshore marine support company. The Company services include engineering, procurement, and construction services.

Fraser & Neave (FNN SP; S$2.71) – SELL

• The stock is now at a critical juncture. It needs to breakout and close above the S$2.72-2.75 resistance trend line to turn bullish again. If the resistance is broken, then the next resistance is at S$3.00.

• However, we think that this resistance will not give way so easily. MACD and RSI are still marginally positive but they are below their previous highs. It could potentially be a negative divergence here but we need further confirmation.

• Nevertheless, we think that it may be wise to take some profit here. If the breakout does take place, then investors could still get back in albeit at a slightly higher level. However, if the breakout fails to materialise, then it could ease to test its support at S$2.55 and S$2.38.

Fraser and Neave Limited produces and sells soft drinks, beer, stout, dairy products, and glass containers. The Company also operates publishing and printing businesses and develops and invests in properties.

Sell Wilmar, Golden Agri, Indofood Agri

Wilmar International (WIL SP; S$3.26) – SELL

• The stock is still holding on to its short-term uptrend channel after hitting a temporary bottom at S$1.76. However, the may be little upside for now, as there is a cluster of resistances at S$3.38-S$3.46. Next upside target is at S$3.68 and S$3.88.

• It is poised for further correction as the indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. MACD is losing momentum while RSI has also hooked down.

• Despite our immediate negative view on the stock, it is unlikely that the pullback may derail its longer term uptrend. Support is at S$3.12 and S$3.02 (also its 30-day SMA). Take profit now.

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP; S$0.295) – SELL

• The stock is still holding above its 30-day SMA but it appears that momentum is easing after it fails to hold above S$0.305. Consolidation may take place after recent rally as sellers at S$0.305 and S$0.33 would cap gains.

• MACD is still positive but RSI indicator has hooked down. Mixed technical readings usually point to volatility.

• Daily chart still looks conducive but could succumb to short-term weakness. Initial support is seen at S$0.28 followed by S$0.26. Time to take some profits, possibly near its resistances. However, there could be buying opportunities near its supports.

Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP; S$0.625) – SELL

• The stock looks toppish after it failed to overcome recent high at S$0.655. The formation of a black candle coupled with the easing technical landscape suggests that there are downside risks to the stock.

• MACD is weakening while RSI also hooks down. Initial support is seen at S$0.59 followed by S$0.57. A fall below its 30-day SMA at S$0.55 would paint a very bearish outlook on the stock.

• It needs to cut above the S$0.67 resistance to conclude its sideways pattern but chances are remote at this juncture. Sell into strength.

Buy Golden Agri, Straits Asia - Sell Chartered

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP; S$0.30) – BUY

• The stock has broken out of its triangle pattern which is a positive sign. However, we still need confirmation before turning bullish. A rise above yesterday’s high of S$0.305 is the signal.

• Indicators are improving on the daily chart. MACD has just confirmed its golden cross while RSI also rises towards the upper band of the neutral zone.

• Once the S$0.305 is taken out, next resistance is at S$0.34 and S$0.38. Initial support is seen at its 30-day SMA at S$0.285 followed by S$0.27. Cut loss if prices fall below S$0.26.

Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, and sells crude palm oil and palm kernel. The Company also refines crude palm oil into cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.

Straits Asia Resources (SAR SP; S$0.845) – BUY

• The stock may have bottomed out at S$0.56 in Nov-08 and is currently enjoying a short rally. However, it needs momentum to drive prices above the S$0.875 resistance trend line to instil more positives into the stock. Next upside target is at S$0.905.

• Technical landscape remains conducive. MACD is gaining momentum while RSI is neutral, suggesting more room to the upside.

• Investors looking for values may want to accumulate near its support at S$0.79. Cut loss if it breaks below S$0.74.

Straits Asia Resources Limited, through its subsidiary, mines for thermal coal on Sebuku Island.

Chartered Semiconductor (CSM SP; US$0.115) – SELL

• Still on its recovery path after broke down of its 30-day SMA. Although aggressive traders may see bargain hunting opportunities in it, we believe it is too early to conclude the selldown.

• It should at least close the S$0.125 gap before we would change our bearish view to a bullish one. Support is still weak at S$0.095 and S$0.07.

• However, indicators are showing improving trend. MACD is poised to stage a positive crossover while RSI is also rising. Upside is likely capped by its S$0.125 and S$0.15 resistances.

Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Limited provides comprehensive wafer fabrication services and technologies to semiconductor suppliers and manufacturers of electronic systems. The Company also produces digital logic, analog, and memory chips for applications as multimedia, communications, computing, and networking.

Sell Golden Agri, F&N, Hong Kong Land (technically)

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP; S$0.29) – SELL

• The stock broke below its short term uptrend channel and has been tradingsideways since then. The breakdown also suggests that the longer termdowntrend has resumed. Resistance is at S$0.30 and S$0.33.

• Its MACD just confirmed its dead cross while RSI has hooked down afterfailing to climb above its trend line.

• On the most bearish case, the stock could fall below the S$0.165. For now,S$0.26 and S$0.21 could be tested soon. Since it is trading below its 30-daySMA, investors would likely do well selling on strength.

Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, andsells crude palm oil and palm kernel. The Company also refines crude palm oilinto cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.

Hongkong Land Holdings (HKL SP; US$1.87) – SELL

• Has dropped below its consolidation triangle support at US$2.00. Thedownside break could induce further selling on the stock with the next supportat US$1.78 and US$1.50.

• Both MACD and RSI have turned negative, suggesting that the sellingmomentum could be picking up.

• Resistance is seen at US$2.00 and US$2.20-2.25.

Hongkong Land Holdings Limited invests in and develops commercial properties.The Company owns and manages prime office and retail space in Hong Kong.Through its subsidiaries, the Company also develops commercial and residentialbuildings as well as infrastructure in Asia.

Fraser & Neave (FNN SP; S$2.04) – SELL

• The stock fell to a new 52-week low yesterday. The next strong support is atS$2.00 and S$1.70.

• Indicators continue to portray weakness but the oversold RSI could prompt aminor rebound.

• A minor rebound could take place soon. Sell on rebound towards the S$2.20and S$2.35 resistance levels.

Fraser and Neave Limited produces and sells soft drinks, beer, stout, dairyproducts, and glass containers. The Company also operates publishing andprinting businesses and develops and invests in properties.

Sell Golden Agri-Resources, Synear, China Hongxing Sports

Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP; S$0.285) – SELL

• The stock broke below its short term uptrend channel and has been trading sideways since then. The breakdown also suggests that the longer term downtrend has resumed. Resistance is at S$0.30.

• Its MACD just confirmed its dead cross while RSI has hooked down after failing to climb above its trend line.

• S$0.26 and S$0.21 could be tested soon. Since it is trading below its 30-day SMA, investors would likely do well selling on strength.

Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, and sells crude palm oil and palm kernel. The Company also refines crude palm oil into cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.

Synear Food Holdings (SYNF SP; S$0.16) – SELL

• The stock continued to drift further away from its 30-day SMA. Any rebound would likely be futile. Resistance is at S$0.19 and S$0.23.

• Technical indicators are still weak. MACD is still negative but RSI is oversold.

• A temporary bounce could take place next as it is sitting on its minor support at S$0.155. Maintain the sell into strength strategy for now. The next support is at S$0.11-0.115, its October lows.

Synear Food Holdings Ltd. produces and markets quick freeze food products. The Company produces dumplings, desserts, and snacks.

China Hongxing Sports (CHHS SP; S$0.09) – SELL

• The stock is still in its downtrend channel. The selling does not appear to have eased. The next support is at S$0.07 and S$0.055 (the middle support trend line).

• Indicators are still negative but the oversold RSI could prompt a minor rebound.

• It is best to stand aside for now as there are no clear sign of where the bottom would be. Maintain our sell on rebound call for now. Resistance is at S$0.12 and S$0.135-0.14.

China Hongxing Sports Ltd. designs, manufactures and markets athletic shoes, and markets sports apparel and accessories. The Company sells its products in the People's Republic of China.

Technical view on Midas, Golden Agri-Resources, and UOB

United Overseas Bank (UOB SP; S$10.52)

• UOB announced over lunch that 4Q profit fell a bigger-than-expected 34% on higher provisions for bad debt and a decline in fee income. 4Q profit was reported to be below a Reuters poll of six analysts.

• UOB cut its final dividend per share to S$0.40 from S$0.45 a year ago. Full year net profit was 4.7% below Bloomberg consensus.

• On valuations, UOB currently trades at consensus CY09 P/BV of 0.92x versus 0.75x for DBS. Given that DBS has shored up its capital base with a rights issue, some traders could be tempted to do a short UOB/Long DBS trade.

Golden Agri-Resources Limited (GGR SP; S$0.29)

• Good news for Golden Agri-Resources shareholders. The Company is proposing a bonus issue of up to 399.0m shares on the basis of 1 bonus share credited as fully paid for every 25 existing shares held in the capital of the Company. Fractional entitlements will be disregarded.

• The proposed bonus issue is intended as a reward to shareholders of the Company for continuing to support the Company.

Midas Holdings (MIDAS SP; S$0.43)

• A few S-Chips released their full year results yesterday. Our technical analyst looked at the charts of these companies and felt that there could be trading opportunity in Midas.

• Share price fell below its descending consolidation triangle two days ago. We had earlier warned that if this breakdown were to happen, there is a good chance that the stock could fall back to test S$0.40 next. We continue to remain bearish on the stock.

• However, its RSI has just moved into the oversold region where a minor rebound could take place.

• Any rebounds should be seen as opportunity to get out. Resistance is seen at S$0.475

Golden Agri-Resources: Downside may be limited

While we have forecasted the bearish trend of Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP) correctly, the magnitude of its decline was more than what we had expected as it broke below our previous support at 0.285 to hit a low of 0.275 during last week. Nevertheless, we believe that further downside may be limited and we advocate accumulating long positions at our forecasted support levels.

The 14-day ADX is still declining, implying that the current (bearish) trend remains weak. Furthermore, while the MACD chart had recently seen a bearish moving average crossover, it nonetheless still trades in positive territory and above the zero line. Finally, although share price had experienced a decline last week, the bollinger bands had not followed on with an expansion, indicating the lack of selling momentum.

Support is identified at the 0.27 – 0.275 region, courtesy of a series of daily lows, the lower bollinger band and the 50- day moving average. On the other hand, resistance is present at the 0.315 – 0.32 area as implied by the technical gap and a series of daily highs. It has a TRADING BUY recommendation with a target price of S$0.60.

Technically sell SIA, Golden Agri, Wilmar

Technically…

Singapore Airlines (SIA SP; S$9.97 – SELL): Fallen below its consolidation triangle’s support and its 30-day SMA, suggesting that longer term downtrend has resumed. Could retest its October lows of S$9.05/S$8.83.

• The stock is fallen below its consolidation triangle’s support and also its 30-daySMA. This breakdown suggests that the longer term downtrend would likelyhave resumed.

• Indicators are looking negative with the RSI hooking downwards from a neutralposition. MACD has also maintained its negative stance and hence anyrebound would likely be weak.

• Maintain sell as any rebounds towards its resistance at S$11.00 and S$12.20should be seen as a selling opportunity. The stock could fall to retest itsOctober lows of S$9.05 and S$8.83 next.


Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP; S$0.275 – SELL): Broke below its short term uptrend channel, suggesting that the longer term downtrend has resumed. S$0.26/S$0.21 could be tested soon.

• The stock broke below its short term uptrend channel yesterday and this is asign of weakness. The breakdown also suggests that the longer termdowntrend has resumed. Resistance is at S$0.30.

• Its MACD just confirmed its dead cross while RSI has hooked down afterfailing to climb above its trend line.

• S$0.26 and S$0.21 could be tested soon. Sell.


Wilmar International (WIL SP; S$2.89 – SELL): Tested its support turned resistance at S$3.10-3.14 but failed to close above it. This could cause further selling pressure and the stock could test the S$2.60/2.26 support.

• The stock tested its support turned resistance at S$3.10-3.14 but failed toclose above it. This would likely result in further selling pressure after fallingbelow its 30-day SMA (S$2.93).

• Indicators have just turned negative with the MACD confirming its negativecrossover.

• The stock would likely re-rate downwards to the next support at S$2.60 andS$2.26 respectively.



Fundamentally…

Lion Asiapac Limited (LAP SP; S$0.12 - HOLD): Excluding gains on sales of investments, 1H results were weak. The Company has announced restructuring of its electronics business which could see inventory and receivables write offs. We maintain HOLD with S$0.15 TP.

MAP Technology Hldgs Ltd (MAP SP; S$0.255 - SELL): Reported worse-than-expected 4Q but remains in net cash and has sustained its 1.77 US cts dividend (more than 10% dividend yield. We switch to P/BV valuation with S$0.195 TP. Downgrade from HOLD to SELL.

Golden Agri-Resources: Still some room for further upside

Share price of Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP) has seen its bollinger bands starting to widen which implies that more volatility is on the cards. Taken with the bullish moving average crossover within the MACD chart and with the 14-day RSI yet to hit the 70 mark, we believe that price action may be poised for further gains. We also do not view the upper bollinger band being violated by share price (which under certain circumstances may mean that the underlying security is overbought) as a major concern, as the bands are just in the initial stages of expansion.

Resistance is seen at the 0.335 mark, courtesy of the daily high on 07 Jan 09 and the 61.8% fibo retracement move from 22 Sep 08 to 28 Oct 08. In the event that price action turns bearish, however, support at the 0.285 – 0.29 region as identified by a series of moving averages and trading lows should serve to cap any additional downside.

For our fundamental outlook on Golden Agri-Resources, we have a TRADING BUY recommendation with a target price of S$0.60.