Jardine C&C - Potential breakout at key resistance

Jardine Cycle & Carriage could be poised for more upside in the weeks ahead. It has not only managed to break above its 1.5-year downtrend resistance line but also closed above the key resistance-turned-support level of $18.34 (last seen in early Apr ’08) on relatively high volume.

We note that the bullish breakout was accompanied by both the RSI and Accumulation/Distribution indicators rebounding off their near 4-month uptrend line recently. Coupled with 100-day MA crossing above the 200- day MA a few days ago, they seem to suggest a renewed strength in the uptrend momentum.

However, on a cautious note, we would advocate waiting for a successful retest of this resistance-turned-support level or the 1.5-year downtrend line, which should serve as confirmation of the breakout.

Immediate support is pegged at $18.00-$18.33 (key resistance-turned- support level), ahead of $16.49 (3.5-month uptrend line).

Should the breakout materialize, we expect an initial resistance at $20.28 (Apr ’08 high), breaking which, we see the next resistance at around $22.34 (minor peaks in Nov ’07 and Jan’08).

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Buy Suntec Reit, JMH, Straits Asia Resource Technically

Suntec REIT (SUN SP; S$0.72) – BUY

• The stock is now testing its medium term downtrend resistance at S$0.73. A breakout above this resistance is bullish for the stock. The next resistance is at S$0.785 and S$0.86.

• MACD has reconfirmed its golden cross while RSI has also inched higher from its neutral position.

• Buy half now and the rest on the breakout above the said resistance. Put stop loss below its 30-day SMA at S$0.635.

Suntec REIT owns prime office and retail space in the Central Business District(CBD) of Singapore. Its portfolio comprises of office and retail properties in Suntec City, a prime landmark property strategically located in the CBD and the largest integrated commercial complex in Singapore (including Singapore’s largest shopping mall).

Jardine Matheson (JM SP; US$21.22) – BUY

• The stock is still languished in its medium term sideways trend channel despite having bounced off its Mar lows of US$15.90. It tested the upside resistance at US$23.90 but it did not have enough in the engine to breakout above it. It is now forming a base near the middle band support at US$19.90.

• MACD and RSI are starting to hook upwards again, probably suggesting that it could soon head higher to retest its upper resistance at US$23.90.

• Furthermore, it is still above its 30-day SMA, which is now at US$19.65. Investors may want buy near the support levels of US$19.90. Cut losses if prices fall below the US$19.00.

Jardine Matheson's interests include Jardine Pacific, Jardine Motors Group, Jardine Lloyd Thompson, Hongkong Land, Dairy Farm, Mandarin Oriental, Jardine Cycle & Carriage and Astra International. These companies are leaders in the fields of engineering and construction, transport services, insurance broking, property investment and development, motor trading, retailing, restaurants, luxury hotels, motor vehicles and related activities, financial services, heavy equipment, mining and agribusiness.

Straits Asia Resources (SAR SP; S$1.07) – BUY

• The stock tested the uptrend channel resistance but failed to breakout above it. It has since pullback to close to its 30-day SMA before rebounding higher.

• Indicators are just about to turn negative, suggesting that the stock is still in consolidation.

• Investors should buy on weakness, preferably near the 30-day SMA currently at S$0.94. Stop loss is at S$0.89 or below. The stock is likely to rebound to try to retest the S$1.19-1.20 resistance again soon.

Straits Asia Resources (SAR) is primarily engaged in thermal coal mining on Sebuku Island, South Kalimantan, Indonesia. SAR commenced operations at its Sebuku mine in 1997 and holds the rights from the Indonesian Government to mine for coal in its concession area until 2027. A substantial portion of Sebuku coal is exported, largely under long-term contracts, to power generation companies within Asia.

Sell Jardine Strategic, Jardine Matheson, Jardine C&C technically

Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP; US$10.76) – SELL

• The stock tested its long term downtrend resistance at US$11.90 but did not breakout above it. It has since retraced to current levels and held above its 30-day SMA at US$10.29.

• MACD has turned negative while RSI continues to edge lower from here.

• Sell on strength is likely the best option here considering the bearish indicators. A break below the support at US$10.29 would signal that more downside is likely with the next support at US$9.50 and US$8.58.

Jardine Strategic Holdings Limited is a holding company with principal interests in Jardine Matheson, Dairy Farm, Hongkong Land, Mandarin Oriental, and Cycle and Carriage. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates auto distribution, food and retailing, property investment, property development, and hotel operations.

Jardine Matheson (JM SP; US$19.90) – SELL

• The stock is still languished in its medium term sideways trend channel despite having bounced off its Mar lows of US$15.90. It tested the upside resistance at US$23.90 but it did not have enough in the engine to breakout above it.

• MACD and RSI are starting to hook downwards again, probably suggesting that it could soon head lower.

• A break below its middle band support at US$19.90 is likely bearish for the stock in the near term. The following support is at US$19.05 and US$18.00.

Jardine Matheson Holdings Limited is a multinational enterprise with a portfolio of businesses focused on the Asia-Pacific region. The Group's activities include financial services, supermarkets, consumer marketing, engineering and construction, automobile trading, insurance broking, property investment, and hotels.

Jardine Cycle & Carriage (JCNC SP; S$13.48) – SELL

• The stock rallied more than 71% from its Mar low of S$8.22 and hit its long term downtrend resistance line at S$14.58. However, the buying momentum faded soon after. It has now fallen below its short term uptrend channel at S$14.05.

• Indicators have just turned negative. The RSI has also reached overbought levels and has turned lower while its MACD has just confirmed its dead cross.

• Investors should SELL now as the downside support is only S$12.16 and S$11.41.

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited distributes, retails, and assembles motor vehicles, parts, and accessories. The Company also develops and invests in properties, and provides after-sales services.

All the U shape - Jardine CC, Cosco, China Fish, Asia Env, Gen Int

Jardine C&C=$14.48 (Called on 2 Apr when broke 200DMA at $12.30...Take profit)


CoscoCorp=$1.17 (Short term target reached at $1.16..Take profit and wait for pullback)


China Fish=$0.74 (called at $0.65..target reached..take some profit)


Asia Env=$0.135 (Brokeout from the 4months trading range...look to the gap at $0.18-0.19 as it may be filled)


Gen Int (why we need to respect the 200DMA....example herein)

Sell Jardine Matheson, Hyflux, F&N - Technically

Fraser & Neave (FNN SP; S$2.50) – SELL

The upside is likely to be capped at S$2.72 and its 30-day SMA at S$2.93.

• The stock gapped lower and followed through selling sent the price lower, forming a negative black candle. More selling is expected to follow suit with the next level of support at S$2.38 and S$2.20 (its low in Oct 08). Breaking below could induce further selling.

• Daily MACD is negative and RSI is heading lower.

• The upside is now likely capped by its gap at S$2.72 and its 30-day SMA at S$2.93.

Hyflux (HYF SP; S$1.77) – SELL

Stock could ease lower to close the gap at S$1.51-1.57 soon. The following support is at S$1.43.

• The stock broke below its consolidation triangle after falling below its support and 30-day SMA at S$1.80.

• Indicators are mixed at the moment. Its MACD is still negative but its RSI has hooked up sharply.

• Until a breakout above the S$1.80-1.88 resistance levels, the stock is still in a bearish phase. The stock could ease lower to close the gap at S$1.51-1.57 soon. The following support is at S$1.43.

Jardine Matheson (JM SP; US$17.50) – SELL

A short term rebound is possible but we expect the stock to head lower again to retest its Oct-lows at US$14.52.

• The stock reversed its downtrend yesterday with a hammer-like candle. This could probably lift the stock to close the gap at US$18.40 and possibly even US$20.00 resistance levels.

• MACD is still negative but improving while RSI is now oversold suggesting that a rebound could take place.

• As the longer term trend is still bearish, any rebound should be seen as an opportunity to sell. After this rebound, we expect the stock to head lower again to retest its Oct lows at US$14.52.