Double Tops formation.... Downside risk increased
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Tuesday, March 31, 2009
SSE A SHARE IDX - double top formation
Double Tops formation.... Downside risk increased
Technical Notes on UOB
After its impressive >33% rally from recent S$8.07 low, UOB could be facing more near-term downside risk, especially if it fails to hold above S$10.32 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the fall from S$13.98 to S$8.07).
Daily RSI indicator shows that the stock is currently overbought ? the last time it went into the overbought region was in Aug 08 and stayed there for only three sessions before it went into a freefall from S$20 to S$10.40 over a span of two months.
Coupled with a bearish engulfing candlestick formation on Friday, there is a good chance that the stock would correct to fill the gap at S$9.79-9.92.
But we think that the real test would be at S$9.25 (centre line of the Bollinger Band); failure to hold above the line could see the stock revisiting the recent S$8.07 low.
However, the chance of that happening looks remote as the weekly charts remain relatively positive ? UOB managed to form a bullish hammer at S$8.07; weekly MACD has just turned upwards and weekly RSI has just risen out of the oversold region.
On the upside, we expect a pretty stiff resistance at S$10.47-10.54 (50-day moving average and upper Bollinger Band), ahead of S$11.02 (50% retracement).
Monday, March 30, 2009
Buy Genting, Venture, Jadason Enterprises; Sell Raffles Education, Transcu
Genting International (GIL SP; S$0.53) – BUY
• The stock is still entrenched in a short-term uptrend rally after bottomed out at $0.32. Expect it to test the S$0.56 resistance trend line soon. Its 30-day SMA is likely to play catch-up and this would cushion any shortfall.
• Although MACD is still rising, RSI indicator has turned overbought. The mixed technical readings suggest that volatility could rise over the near term, despite our bullish view on the stock.
• Due to the overbought RSI, we prefer to accumulate at lower levels. Initial support is seen at S$0.49 followed by S$0.465.
Genting International P.L.C., through its subsidiaries, develops real estate properties. The Company also provides sales and marketing services to leisure and hospitality businesses. Genting International provides loyalty card program.
Raffles Education Corp (RLS SP; S$0.39) – SELL
• Still stuck in its medium term downtrend channel. Three previous failed attempts prove that the resistance trend line is strong and likely to cap further gains. A fall below its 30-day SMA is also a bearish sign.
• Technical indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. MACD is poised for a negative crossover while RSI has also hooked down. Support is weak at S$0.35 and S$0.31.
• Investors should do well selling into strength, possibly near its S$0.43 resistance. However, if share prices were to break above the trend line resistance, the technical landscape would totally change.
Raffles Education Corp Ltd provides training programs and courses in various are as of design and management. The Company's education services include fashion design, visual communication, multimedia design, interior design, design management, fashion marketing, and business administration.
Transcu Group (TSCU SP; S$0.235) – SELL
• The stock may have rebounded from its recent low at S$0.095 but we think there is still downside risk. A break below its bearish rising wedge pattern would send the stock lower towards the S$0.195 and S$0.185 supports.
• MACD is losing momentum while RSI is fattish. If RSI turns oversold, it also reflects that buyers are losing steam.
• Continue to take profit on rally as the recent lows may not be the rock-bottom. Resistance is at S$0.24 and S$0.245.
Eng Wah Orgnization Limited changed its name to Transcu Group Limited following the completion of the reverse take over of Transcu Ltd. Trading under the new name with effect from 21 November 2008.
Venture Corporation (VMS SP; S$5.17) – BUY
• Renewed buying interest lifted the stock from its 30-day SMA to test its 38% FR levels. Friday’s breakout suggests that the uptrend may prolong, likely towards the next resistance at S$5.50.
• MACD continues to gain strength while RSI is fast approaching the overbought territory. Price volatility may rise but we are still bullish on the stock. • Prefer to buy on weakness, possibly near its support at S$4.83. Cut losses however if prices fall below S$4.62.
Venture Corporation Limited provides contract manufacturing services to electronics companies worldwide. The Company also provides manufacturing, design, engineering, customization, and logistic services. Venture Corporation trades and manufactures electronics and computer-related products, develops and markets color imaging products for label printing.
Jadason Enterprises (JAD SP; S$0.045) – BUY
• A base building formation is seen on the daily chart. Breaking above its 30-day SMA is positive but investors should always adopt tight stop loss strategy.Resistance is at S$0.05 and S$0.06.
• Technical landscape has improved. MACD is gaining momentum and has penetrated into the positive zone while RSI is neutral at 59.
• Immediate support is at S$0.035. Breaking below its recent lows of S$0.03 would violate all the bullish indicators.
Jadason Enterprises Limited distributes and trades machines and materials for the printed circuit board (PCB) and semiconductor industries. The Company's products include drilling machines, laser plotters, wet processing machines, dry films, drill bits, and laminates. The Company also provides support services for its equipment sale and graphic arts and digital media (G&D) service.
• The stock is still entrenched in a short-term uptrend rally after bottomed out at $0.32. Expect it to test the S$0.56 resistance trend line soon. Its 30-day SMA is likely to play catch-up and this would cushion any shortfall.
• Although MACD is still rising, RSI indicator has turned overbought. The mixed technical readings suggest that volatility could rise over the near term, despite our bullish view on the stock.
• Due to the overbought RSI, we prefer to accumulate at lower levels. Initial support is seen at S$0.49 followed by S$0.465.
Genting International P.L.C., through its subsidiaries, develops real estate properties. The Company also provides sales and marketing services to leisure and hospitality businesses. Genting International provides loyalty card program.
Raffles Education Corp (RLS SP; S$0.39) – SELL
• Still stuck in its medium term downtrend channel. Three previous failed attempts prove that the resistance trend line is strong and likely to cap further gains. A fall below its 30-day SMA is also a bearish sign.
• Technical indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. MACD is poised for a negative crossover while RSI has also hooked down. Support is weak at S$0.35 and S$0.31.
• Investors should do well selling into strength, possibly near its S$0.43 resistance. However, if share prices were to break above the trend line resistance, the technical landscape would totally change.
Raffles Education Corp Ltd provides training programs and courses in various are as of design and management. The Company's education services include fashion design, visual communication, multimedia design, interior design, design management, fashion marketing, and business administration.
Transcu Group (TSCU SP; S$0.235) – SELL
• The stock may have rebounded from its recent low at S$0.095 but we think there is still downside risk. A break below its bearish rising wedge pattern would send the stock lower towards the S$0.195 and S$0.185 supports.
• MACD is losing momentum while RSI is fattish. If RSI turns oversold, it also reflects that buyers are losing steam.
• Continue to take profit on rally as the recent lows may not be the rock-bottom. Resistance is at S$0.24 and S$0.245.
Eng Wah Orgnization Limited changed its name to Transcu Group Limited following the completion of the reverse take over of Transcu Ltd. Trading under the new name with effect from 21 November 2008.
Venture Corporation (VMS SP; S$5.17) – BUY
• Renewed buying interest lifted the stock from its 30-day SMA to test its 38% FR levels. Friday’s breakout suggests that the uptrend may prolong, likely towards the next resistance at S$5.50.
• MACD continues to gain strength while RSI is fast approaching the overbought territory. Price volatility may rise but we are still bullish on the stock. • Prefer to buy on weakness, possibly near its support at S$4.83. Cut losses however if prices fall below S$4.62.
Venture Corporation Limited provides contract manufacturing services to electronics companies worldwide. The Company also provides manufacturing, design, engineering, customization, and logistic services. Venture Corporation trades and manufactures electronics and computer-related products, develops and markets color imaging products for label printing.
Jadason Enterprises (JAD SP; S$0.045) – BUY
• A base building formation is seen on the daily chart. Breaking above its 30-day SMA is positive but investors should always adopt tight stop loss strategy.Resistance is at S$0.05 and S$0.06.
• Technical landscape has improved. MACD is gaining momentum and has penetrated into the positive zone while RSI is neutral at 59.
• Immediate support is at S$0.035. Breaking below its recent lows of S$0.03 would violate all the bullish indicators.
Jadason Enterprises Limited distributes and trades machines and materials for the printed circuit board (PCB) and semiconductor industries. The Company's products include drilling machines, laser plotters, wet processing machines, dry films, drill bits, and laminates. The Company also provides support services for its equipment sale and graphic arts and digital media (G&D) service.
Sell Pfizer, JPMorgan Chase, Buy AT&T
Pfizer Inc. (PFE US; US$14.04) – SELL
• Pfizer rebounded from its 52-week low of US$11.62 to test the 38% FR levels (measuring from a high of US$19.39 and a low of US$11.62). Although a cut above its 30-day SMA is positive, it appears that sellers are queuing to sell at US$14.60 (38% FR). A short term consolidation is likely to take place before renewed buying interest lifted the stock towards the 50% FR at US$15.50. There could also be a minor resistance at US$15.00.
• Technical indicators are showing signs of exhaustion, supporting the change in momentum towards the bears. MACD is losing momentum and may dip into negative while RSI has also turned south.
• There is a strong possibility that the stock could ease towards the 23.6% FR at US$13.45, which is also near to its 30-day SMA. Aggressive investors looking to buy may want to wait for a pullback. Cut losses however if prices fall below US$12.94.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM US; US$27.40) – SELL
• The stock has rebounded sharply from a low of US$14.96 in early March to penetrate above its 30-day SMA. Despite Friday’s pullback, the stock is likely to maintain its short term uptrend channel, though the congestion zone over the past one week may suggest that a correction is forthcoming. The neutralisation process would underpin future strength with next resistance near US$32.25.
• The daily MACD indicator is showing an easing trend while RSI has also hooks down. It may be best to sell into strength for now as buying begins to lose momentum. We expect further retracement on its share prices.
• We envisage investors to buy only during technical pullbacks as the stock has climbed >90% over the past three weeks. Buying between its 38% FR at US$23.60 and its 30-day SMA at US$22.50 is a low risk buy. Put a stop at US$22.00 in case things turn out badly.
AT&T Inc (T US; US$26.00) – BUY
• AT&T’s strong rebound has pushed the stock above its 23.6% FR levels and also its 30-day SMA but buying began losing momentum. It did not ride the wave to test the next key resistance, which is also the 38% FR at US$28.46. This week is crucial as sellers may push its share price below US$25.50 to conclude its recent upward trend.
• If the stock breaks below US$25.50, the next key support is at US$24.10 which is also its 30-day SMA. MACD momentum is waning while RSI is also heading southbound, reinforcing our short term negative view on the stock.
• On the other hand, if the US25.50 support holds, there is a marginal chance for AT&T to resume it uptrend rally to test the US$28.46 resistance. Breaking above the 38% FR would see the stock rising towards next upside target atUS$29.46.
• Pfizer rebounded from its 52-week low of US$11.62 to test the 38% FR levels (measuring from a high of US$19.39 and a low of US$11.62). Although a cut above its 30-day SMA is positive, it appears that sellers are queuing to sell at US$14.60 (38% FR). A short term consolidation is likely to take place before renewed buying interest lifted the stock towards the 50% FR at US$15.50. There could also be a minor resistance at US$15.00.
• Technical indicators are showing signs of exhaustion, supporting the change in momentum towards the bears. MACD is losing momentum and may dip into negative while RSI has also turned south.
• There is a strong possibility that the stock could ease towards the 23.6% FR at US$13.45, which is also near to its 30-day SMA. Aggressive investors looking to buy may want to wait for a pullback. Cut losses however if prices fall below US$12.94.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM US; US$27.40) – SELL
• The stock has rebounded sharply from a low of US$14.96 in early March to penetrate above its 30-day SMA. Despite Friday’s pullback, the stock is likely to maintain its short term uptrend channel, though the congestion zone over the past one week may suggest that a correction is forthcoming. The neutralisation process would underpin future strength with next resistance near US$32.25.
• The daily MACD indicator is showing an easing trend while RSI has also hooks down. It may be best to sell into strength for now as buying begins to lose momentum. We expect further retracement on its share prices.
• We envisage investors to buy only during technical pullbacks as the stock has climbed >90% over the past three weeks. Buying between its 38% FR at US$23.60 and its 30-day SMA at US$22.50 is a low risk buy. Put a stop at US$22.00 in case things turn out badly.
AT&T Inc (T US; US$26.00) – BUY
• AT&T’s strong rebound has pushed the stock above its 23.6% FR levels and also its 30-day SMA but buying began losing momentum. It did not ride the wave to test the next key resistance, which is also the 38% FR at US$28.46. This week is crucial as sellers may push its share price below US$25.50 to conclude its recent upward trend.
• If the stock breaks below US$25.50, the next key support is at US$24.10 which is also its 30-day SMA. MACD momentum is waning while RSI is also heading southbound, reinforcing our short term negative view on the stock.
• On the other hand, if the US25.50 support holds, there is a marginal chance for AT&T to resume it uptrend rally to test the US$28.46 resistance. Breaking above the 38% FR would see the stock rising towards next upside target atUS$29.46.
Straits Times Index - First gap was covered this afternoon
On Friday, we noted that the FSSTI had formed 4 consecutive gaps and it was at overbought levels. We suggested that the index should at least correct back part of the gaps. It has done so now, as the index has corrected below prior gap, a runaway gap at 1664. We also stated that we did not think that a bull market had begun and instead suggested that what we are witnessing was a bottoming process. The current pullback has now confirmed our views. Chances are that we could see a rebound off current levels, which will be followed by another down leg.
DBS - aim for a pull back
Recent sharp run-up (36% since S$6.42 low) is likely due for a correction.
Although the daily MACD indicator is still very bullish, the daily RSI and stochastic indicators both show the stock as overbought ? stochastic has just cut down inside the overbought region as well.
The stock has also breached the upper Bollinger Band ? typically does not stay above that band for more than three days..
Initial support is likely at S$8.41 (50% Fibonacci retracement resistance-turned-support of the three-month long tumble).
The key support remains at $7.94, which is the 38.2% retracement, and also the resistance-turned-support line provided by the downtrend since July 2008.
This level may also be protected by another intermediate support at S$8.02 (50-day MA).
Most important resistance is at S$8.88 (61.8% retracement), ahead of S$9.22-$9.43 gap.
Sell Sunningdale Tech, Buy SembCorp Marine, Keppel Land
Sunningdale Tech (SUNN SP; S$0.035) – SELL
• A base building formation was seen on the daily chart. The stock may have bottomed temporary at its 52-week low of S$0.03, but until a breakout from its long term downtrend channel materialises, we are still bearish on the stock. There is still a risk for it to go below S$0.03.
• Although technical landscape has improved, gains would be capped at $0.045 and S$0.055 resistances.
• We advocate investors to take profit on rally, as the bears still have the upper hand over the bulls.
Sunningdale Tech Ltd manufactures and sells mould and plastic injection products. The Company also designs, manufactures, markets, and exports high precision steel moulds. Sunningdale Tech trades car audio equipment and provides product design consultancy, mold flow service, mold design, and project management.
SembCorp Marine (SMM SP; S$1.87) – BUY
• Tested its triangle resistance trend line yesterday. However, if it fails to hold above S$1.86, the stock may poise for a minor correction soon. Support is seen at S$1.67.
• Although MACD is still rising and has pierced into the positive territory, RSI is already overbought at 76.
• Investors should wait for share prices to come off before accumulating, preferable near its support. The overbought RSI would cap further gains for now. Resistance is at S$2.04.
SembCorp Marine Limited operates ship building, ship owning, ship repair and conversion. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides equipment rental, cleaning and maintenance services, marine, general electronic, and electrical works. SembCorp Marine also trades copper slag, processes copper slag for grit blasting and building, as well as fabricates metal structures.
Keppel Land (KPLD SP; S$1.49) – BUY
• The stock has rebounded from its 52-week low to retest the triangle resistance. However, we would only turn bullish if prices break above S$1.51.
• Technical indicators have improved. MACD is positive but RSI is fast approaching the overbought zone.
• While daily chart still looks positive, investors should buy on weakness, possibly near its support at S$1.38. Cut losses if prices fall below its 30-day SMA at S$1.28.
Keppel Land Limited is the property arm of the Keppel Group. The Company's portfolio of properties includes office towers, residential properties, hotels, resorts, retail complexes, industrial buildings, and townships. The Company also provides management and consultancy services.
• A base building formation was seen on the daily chart. The stock may have bottomed temporary at its 52-week low of S$0.03, but until a breakout from its long term downtrend channel materialises, we are still bearish on the stock. There is still a risk for it to go below S$0.03.
• Although technical landscape has improved, gains would be capped at $0.045 and S$0.055 resistances.
• We advocate investors to take profit on rally, as the bears still have the upper hand over the bulls.
Sunningdale Tech Ltd manufactures and sells mould and plastic injection products. The Company also designs, manufactures, markets, and exports high precision steel moulds. Sunningdale Tech trades car audio equipment and provides product design consultancy, mold flow service, mold design, and project management.
SembCorp Marine (SMM SP; S$1.87) – BUY
• Tested its triangle resistance trend line yesterday. However, if it fails to hold above S$1.86, the stock may poise for a minor correction soon. Support is seen at S$1.67.
• Although MACD is still rising and has pierced into the positive territory, RSI is already overbought at 76.
• Investors should wait for share prices to come off before accumulating, preferable near its support. The overbought RSI would cap further gains for now. Resistance is at S$2.04.
SembCorp Marine Limited operates ship building, ship owning, ship repair and conversion. Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides equipment rental, cleaning and maintenance services, marine, general electronic, and electrical works. SembCorp Marine also trades copper slag, processes copper slag for grit blasting and building, as well as fabricates metal structures.
Keppel Land (KPLD SP; S$1.49) – BUY
• The stock has rebounded from its 52-week low to retest the triangle resistance. However, we would only turn bullish if prices break above S$1.51.
• Technical indicators have improved. MACD is positive but RSI is fast approaching the overbought zone.
• While daily chart still looks positive, investors should buy on weakness, possibly near its support at S$1.38. Cut losses if prices fall below its 30-day SMA at S$1.28.
Keppel Land Limited is the property arm of the Keppel Group. The Company's portfolio of properties includes office towers, residential properties, hotels, resorts, retail complexes, industrial buildings, and townships. The Company also provides management and consultancy services.
Friday, March 27, 2009
SPC and Venture - buy on pull back
SPC has been running up in a strong uptrend. 30 and 50 moving averages have spread out nicely. There is resistance overhead at S$2.85 to S$2.86.
We anticipate price to test S$2.85 and sell off slightly. A subsequent rally from the sell off would be a good place to enter.
We recommend waiting for the next dip in the stochastics and cross over (red line to cross over blue) for entry. SPC has almost no resistance overhead until S$3.10. We highly recommend shifting stops to breakeven after some profit has been made.
Venture is in a similar situation to SPC. It is in an uptrend, and going to encounter overhead resistance in the S$5.02 to S$5.05 region.
The main plus point here is that the next resistance levels are reasonably far away. S$5.30 and S$5.80.
We recommend buying on the next dip/pull back using a stochastic cross over (same as SPC).
We highly recommend shifting stops to breakeven after some profit has been made.
We anticipate price to test S$2.85 and sell off slightly. A subsequent rally from the sell off would be a good place to enter.
We recommend waiting for the next dip in the stochastics and cross over (red line to cross over blue) for entry. SPC has almost no resistance overhead until S$3.10. We highly recommend shifting stops to breakeven after some profit has been made.
Venture is in a similar situation to SPC. It is in an uptrend, and going to encounter overhead resistance in the S$5.02 to S$5.05 region.
The main plus point here is that the next resistance levels are reasonably far away. S$5.30 and S$5.80.
We recommend buying on the next dip/pull back using a stochastic cross over (same as SPC).
We highly recommend shifting stops to breakeven after some profit has been made.
Sell Wilmar, Golden Agri, Indofood Agri
Wilmar International (WIL SP; S$3.26) – SELL
• The stock is still holding on to its short-term uptrend channel after hitting a temporary bottom at S$1.76. However, the may be little upside for now, as there is a cluster of resistances at S$3.38-S$3.46. Next upside target is at S$3.68 and S$3.88.
• It is poised for further correction as the indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. MACD is losing momentum while RSI has also hooked down.
• Despite our immediate negative view on the stock, it is unlikely that the pullback may derail its longer term uptrend. Support is at S$3.12 and S$3.02 (also its 30-day SMA). Take profit now.
Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP; S$0.295) – SELL
• The stock is still holding above its 30-day SMA but it appears that momentum is easing after it fails to hold above S$0.305. Consolidation may take place after recent rally as sellers at S$0.305 and S$0.33 would cap gains.
• MACD is still positive but RSI indicator has hooked down. Mixed technical readings usually point to volatility.
• Daily chart still looks conducive but could succumb to short-term weakness. Initial support is seen at S$0.28 followed by S$0.26. Time to take some profits, possibly near its resistances. However, there could be buying opportunities near its supports.
Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP; S$0.625) – SELL
• The stock looks toppish after it failed to overcome recent high at S$0.655. The formation of a black candle coupled with the easing technical landscape suggests that there are downside risks to the stock.
• MACD is weakening while RSI also hooks down. Initial support is seen at S$0.59 followed by S$0.57. A fall below its 30-day SMA at S$0.55 would paint a very bearish outlook on the stock.
• It needs to cut above the S$0.67 resistance to conclude its sideways pattern but chances are remote at this juncture. Sell into strength.
• The stock is still holding on to its short-term uptrend channel after hitting a temporary bottom at S$1.76. However, the may be little upside for now, as there is a cluster of resistances at S$3.38-S$3.46. Next upside target is at S$3.68 and S$3.88.
• It is poised for further correction as the indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. MACD is losing momentum while RSI has also hooked down.
• Despite our immediate negative view on the stock, it is unlikely that the pullback may derail its longer term uptrend. Support is at S$3.12 and S$3.02 (also its 30-day SMA). Take profit now.
Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP; S$0.295) – SELL
• The stock is still holding above its 30-day SMA but it appears that momentum is easing after it fails to hold above S$0.305. Consolidation may take place after recent rally as sellers at S$0.305 and S$0.33 would cap gains.
• MACD is still positive but RSI indicator has hooked down. Mixed technical readings usually point to volatility.
• Daily chart still looks conducive but could succumb to short-term weakness. Initial support is seen at S$0.28 followed by S$0.26. Time to take some profits, possibly near its resistances. However, there could be buying opportunities near its supports.
Indofood Agri Resources (IFAR SP; S$0.625) – SELL
• The stock looks toppish after it failed to overcome recent high at S$0.655. The formation of a black candle coupled with the easing technical landscape suggests that there are downside risks to the stock.
• MACD is weakening while RSI also hooks down. Initial support is seen at S$0.59 followed by S$0.57. A fall below its 30-day SMA at S$0.55 would paint a very bearish outlook on the stock.
• It needs to cut above the S$0.67 resistance to conclude its sideways pattern but chances are remote at this juncture. Sell into strength.
Chartered Reached yellowline
Called for potential rebound on 19 Mar at $0.10-0.105.... good profit... take loh.
Gen Int The first Stock in Singapore to cross above 200 Day Moving Average
Genting up 3% despite others are red.
Straits Times Index 100Day MA at 1,780
STI is not able to cross 1,780. As expected, the index succumbed to profit-taking, especially after the nifty 20.8% gains since the STI rebounded from 1455 low in early March. The index has fallen to the 10-month downtrend resistance-turned-support line at around 1745 (dropping by around 5 points daily).
Should this support give way, the next support is at 1725 and then 1702 (100-day moving average). In any case, we feel that a near-term pullback is healthy and should help sustain the current technical rally.
As before, as long as 1455-1474 is protected, the index could still be heading towards 1960 in the coming weeks. Initial resistance at 1780, ahead of 1800.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Buy Sarin Tech, Singtel, Ezra - Sell Santak Technically
Sarin Technologies (SARIN SP; S$0.125) – BUY
• Yesterday’s breakout from its 30-day SMA at S$0.11 is a positive sign. However, to reverse its medium term downtrend channel, it still needs to penetrate above S$0.14 before we would turn bullish.
• Although MACD is still rising, RSI is fast approaching the overbought territory. This bull-bear tussle may cap gains to the upside as momentum may stay weak after end-08 plunge.
• A minor correction may take place soon to neutralise the RSI indicator. Therefore, investors should accumulate only during technical pullbacks, possibly near its 30-day SMA. Cut loss if prices fall below S$0.105.
Sarin Technologies Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells planning, evaluation, and measurement systems for diamond grading and gemstone production. The Company's products include diamond cut grading tools, rough diamond optimization systems, gemology tools, diamond color grading, and laser marking machines.
Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP; S$2.51) – BUY
• The stock has broken out of its medium term downtrend channel. It is currently struggling to hold above the trend line support. If prices fall below the 30-day SMA at S$2.48, it would suggest that the run-up is just a fake out.
• Technical indicators remain conducive. MACD is still rising towards the positive territory while RSI is neutral at 52.
• If prices were to hold above its 30-day SMA, we would expect a turnaround in sentiment, with resistance seen at S$2.63 and S$2.79. Buy on weakness. Cut loss however if prices fall below S$2.40, as next support is weaker at S$2.18 and S$2.00.
Singapore Telecommunications Limited operates and provides telecommunications system and services. The Company provides postal services, directory advertising and publishing. Singapore Telecommunications sells and maintains telecommunications equipment and provides mobile phone and paging service, computer network, and Internet and information technology services.
Ezra Holdings (EZRA SP; S$0.685) – BUY
• The stock has broken out of its 30-day SMA. The 2-week rally is likely to be extended towards the next resistance at S$0.745 and S$0.85. It needs to fill the S$0.99 gap to confirm a change in tone towards the bulls.
• Although MACD is positive, RSI is almost overbought at 69. This suggests that a temporary pullback may take place soon. However, we do not expect the correction to drag it below the 30-day SMA at S$0.56.
• Any pullback towards the 30-day SMA is a good buying opportunity. Cut loss if it tanks below S$0.54, which may signify the end of its short term rally.
Ezra Holdings Limited is an integrated offshore support and marine services company. The Company owns offshore support vessels and provides chartering and management services. Ezra also provides offshore support, marine supplies and engineering services.
Santak Holdings (SNTK SP; S$0.105) – SELL
• The stock is still trapped in a downtrend rally. With technical indicators showing more signs of weakness, a re-test of S$0.095 and S$0.08 supports is only a matter of time.
• MACD is poised to stage a negative crossover while RSI also hooks down, suggesting that prices may play catch-up on the downside.
• Investors should do well selling into strength. The bears are still in command with resistance seen at S$0.12 and S$0.135.
Santak Holdings Limited manufactures custom-made precision-machined components for hard disk drives, fiber-optic connectors and communication products. The Company also manufactures coils used as antennas for contactless smartcards, tags and transponders. Santak also trades custom-made electronic components such as heat sinks, printed circuit boards, connectors, LCD modules and solenoids.
• Yesterday’s breakout from its 30-day SMA at S$0.11 is a positive sign. However, to reverse its medium term downtrend channel, it still needs to penetrate above S$0.14 before we would turn bullish.
• Although MACD is still rising, RSI is fast approaching the overbought territory. This bull-bear tussle may cap gains to the upside as momentum may stay weak after end-08 plunge.
• A minor correction may take place soon to neutralise the RSI indicator. Therefore, investors should accumulate only during technical pullbacks, possibly near its 30-day SMA. Cut loss if prices fall below S$0.105.
Sarin Technologies Ltd. develops, manufactures, and sells planning, evaluation, and measurement systems for diamond grading and gemstone production. The Company's products include diamond cut grading tools, rough diamond optimization systems, gemology tools, diamond color grading, and laser marking machines.
Singapore Telecommunications (ST SP; S$2.51) – BUY
• The stock has broken out of its medium term downtrend channel. It is currently struggling to hold above the trend line support. If prices fall below the 30-day SMA at S$2.48, it would suggest that the run-up is just a fake out.
• Technical indicators remain conducive. MACD is still rising towards the positive territory while RSI is neutral at 52.
• If prices were to hold above its 30-day SMA, we would expect a turnaround in sentiment, with resistance seen at S$2.63 and S$2.79. Buy on weakness. Cut loss however if prices fall below S$2.40, as next support is weaker at S$2.18 and S$2.00.
Singapore Telecommunications Limited operates and provides telecommunications system and services. The Company provides postal services, directory advertising and publishing. Singapore Telecommunications sells and maintains telecommunications equipment and provides mobile phone and paging service, computer network, and Internet and information technology services.
Ezra Holdings (EZRA SP; S$0.685) – BUY
• The stock has broken out of its 30-day SMA. The 2-week rally is likely to be extended towards the next resistance at S$0.745 and S$0.85. It needs to fill the S$0.99 gap to confirm a change in tone towards the bulls.
• Although MACD is positive, RSI is almost overbought at 69. This suggests that a temporary pullback may take place soon. However, we do not expect the correction to drag it below the 30-day SMA at S$0.56.
• Any pullback towards the 30-day SMA is a good buying opportunity. Cut loss if it tanks below S$0.54, which may signify the end of its short term rally.
Ezra Holdings Limited is an integrated offshore support and marine services company. The Company owns offshore support vessels and provides chartering and management services. Ezra also provides offshore support, marine supplies and engineering services.
Santak Holdings (SNTK SP; S$0.105) – SELL
• The stock is still trapped in a downtrend rally. With technical indicators showing more signs of weakness, a re-test of S$0.095 and S$0.08 supports is only a matter of time.
• MACD is poised to stage a negative crossover while RSI also hooks down, suggesting that prices may play catch-up on the downside.
• Investors should do well selling into strength. The bears are still in command with resistance seen at S$0.12 and S$0.135.
Santak Holdings Limited manufactures custom-made precision-machined components for hard disk drives, fiber-optic connectors and communication products. The Company also manufactures coils used as antennas for contactless smartcards, tags and transponders. Santak also trades custom-made electronic components such as heat sinks, printed circuit boards, connectors, LCD modules and solenoids.
Hang Seng Index facing strong resistance
HANG SENG INDEX = 13,903, facing strong resistance at 13,976
STI technical - a near-term pullback is healthy
The rally this morning was much stronger-than-expected, with the STI breaking through our initial 1706 resistance (100-day moving average and upper Bollinger Band) with relative ease.
However, the index did not quite manage to test the 10-month downtrend line (currently around 1750), and from the intraday technical indicators, it is quite unlikely to test it today.
For one, the intraday MACD indicator has not only just cut down (although still bullish), it is showing a bearish divergence signal to the price action.
Secondly, the intraday RSI indicator has done likewise ? bearish divergence ? as well as an overbought signal.
As such, we believe that investors should watch the 1725 support closely; failure to hold above this level could see the STI easing back to 1706 and possibly even the 1664-1681 region.
Nevertheless, we still feel that a near-term pullback is healthy and should help sustain the current technical rally.
As before, as long as 1455-1474 is protected, the index could still be heading towards 1960 in the coming weeks.
Buy Golden Agri, Straits Asia - Sell Chartered
Golden Agri-Resources (GGR SP; S$0.30) – BUY
• The stock has broken out of its triangle pattern which is a positive sign. However, we still need confirmation before turning bullish. A rise above yesterday’s high of S$0.305 is the signal.
• Indicators are improving on the daily chart. MACD has just confirmed its golden cross while RSI also rises towards the upper band of the neutral zone.
• Once the S$0.305 is taken out, next resistance is at S$0.34 and S$0.38. Initial support is seen at its 30-day SMA at S$0.285 followed by S$0.27. Cut loss if prices fall below S$0.26.
Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, and sells crude palm oil and palm kernel. The Company also refines crude palm oil into cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.
Straits Asia Resources (SAR SP; S$0.845) – BUY
• The stock may have bottomed out at S$0.56 in Nov-08 and is currently enjoying a short rally. However, it needs momentum to drive prices above the S$0.875 resistance trend line to instil more positives into the stock. Next upside target is at S$0.905.
• Technical landscape remains conducive. MACD is gaining momentum while RSI is neutral, suggesting more room to the upside.
• Investors looking for values may want to accumulate near its support at S$0.79. Cut loss if it breaks below S$0.74.
Straits Asia Resources Limited, through its subsidiary, mines for thermal coal on Sebuku Island.
Chartered Semiconductor (CSM SP; US$0.115) – SELL
• Still on its recovery path after broke down of its 30-day SMA. Although aggressive traders may see bargain hunting opportunities in it, we believe it is too early to conclude the selldown.
• It should at least close the S$0.125 gap before we would change our bearish view to a bullish one. Support is still weak at S$0.095 and S$0.07.
• However, indicators are showing improving trend. MACD is poised to stage a positive crossover while RSI is also rising. Upside is likely capped by its S$0.125 and S$0.15 resistances.
Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Limited provides comprehensive wafer fabrication services and technologies to semiconductor suppliers and manufacturers of electronic systems. The Company also produces digital logic, analog, and memory chips for applications as multimedia, communications, computing, and networking.
• The stock has broken out of its triangle pattern which is a positive sign. However, we still need confirmation before turning bullish. A rise above yesterday’s high of S$0.305 is the signal.
• Indicators are improving on the daily chart. MACD has just confirmed its golden cross while RSI also rises towards the upper band of the neutral zone.
• Once the S$0.305 is taken out, next resistance is at S$0.34 and S$0.38. Initial support is seen at its 30-day SMA at S$0.285 followed by S$0.27. Cut loss if prices fall below S$0.26.
Golden Agri-Resources Limited cultivates, harvests, processes, distributes, and sells crude palm oil and palm kernel. The Company also refines crude palm oil into cooking oil, margarine, and shortening for sale and distribution.
Straits Asia Resources (SAR SP; S$0.845) – BUY
• The stock may have bottomed out at S$0.56 in Nov-08 and is currently enjoying a short rally. However, it needs momentum to drive prices above the S$0.875 resistance trend line to instil more positives into the stock. Next upside target is at S$0.905.
• Technical landscape remains conducive. MACD is gaining momentum while RSI is neutral, suggesting more room to the upside.
• Investors looking for values may want to accumulate near its support at S$0.79. Cut loss if it breaks below S$0.74.
Straits Asia Resources Limited, through its subsidiary, mines for thermal coal on Sebuku Island.
Chartered Semiconductor (CSM SP; US$0.115) – SELL
• Still on its recovery path after broke down of its 30-day SMA. Although aggressive traders may see bargain hunting opportunities in it, we believe it is too early to conclude the selldown.
• It should at least close the S$0.125 gap before we would change our bearish view to a bullish one. Support is still weak at S$0.095 and S$0.07.
• However, indicators are showing improving trend. MACD is poised to stage a positive crossover while RSI is also rising. Upside is likely capped by its S$0.125 and S$0.15 resistances.
Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Limited provides comprehensive wafer fabrication services and technologies to semiconductor suppliers and manufacturers of electronic systems. The Company also produces digital logic, analog, and memory chips for applications as multimedia, communications, computing, and networking.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
UOB and DBS pull back to yellow line
UOB = $10.30, look towards a pullback to yellowline.
DBS = $8.40, likely to fall towards yellowline at $8.23.
SGX - More Near-term Downside
- After falling out of its 4-month uptrend channel to a new 2.5-year low, SGX has managed to stage a decent rebound.
- However, the rebound appears to be waning as it approaches what seems to be a very tough resistance at S$4.90, provided by a combination of the lower channel line, the 50-day MA, the 100-day MA and the upper Bollinger band.
- Although the MACD indicator remains slightly bullish, the other technical indicators have turned slightly negative; the stochastic indicator has cut down just inside the overbought region, and similar moves in the past saw subsequent price declines.
- Meanwhile, the OBV indicator’s 5.5-month downtrend pattern remains intact and the RSI indicator has shown a tendency to cut back down just above the centre line.
- As such, we see a possible pullback to the immediate support around $4.31 (Nov ’08 low), but should hold above $4.00 (2009 low).
- And should the S$4.90 cap give way, the next resistance is at $5.85 (2009 high)
- However, the rebound appears to be waning as it approaches what seems to be a very tough resistance at S$4.90, provided by a combination of the lower channel line, the 50-day MA, the 100-day MA and the upper Bollinger band.
- Although the MACD indicator remains slightly bullish, the other technical indicators have turned slightly negative; the stochastic indicator has cut down just inside the overbought region, and similar moves in the past saw subsequent price declines.
- Meanwhile, the OBV indicator’s 5.5-month downtrend pattern remains intact and the RSI indicator has shown a tendency to cut back down just above the centre line.
- As such, we see a possible pullback to the immediate support around $4.31 (Nov ’08 low), but should hold above $4.00 (2009 low).
- And should the S$4.90 cap give way, the next resistance is at $5.85 (2009 high)
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Straits Times Index created a gap 1,664-1,681
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Lighten up your holding in blue chips and trading positions as we are seeing High Index (257 points surged from low of 1,455 on 10 Mar), High Prices and High Volume (half day already 1.2bln shares traded). Next few days may see STI pullback to cover the gap 1,664-1,681.
Buy Microsoft, Cisco - Sell 3M
Microsoft (MSFT US; US$17.06) – BUY
• From the chart, Microsoft is still sitting on the lower band of its long term downtrend channel. It has rebounded from a low of US$14.87 to current levels to retest the middle band resistance at US$17.20. Its 30-day SMA at US$17.22 is also standing in the way of the bulls. A breakout would be bullish for the stock and a retest of the upper resistance at US$20.20 is likely in the medium term.
• Technical indicators are showing signs of bullishness, supporting the change in momentum towards the bulls. However, its very short term indicators are overbought, suggesting that a pullback is likely.
• Aggressive investors looking to buy may want to wait for a pullback to S$16.18 or S$15.50 to buy. Cut losses if prices falls back below the Mar lows of S$14.87.
3M (MMM US; US$45.93) – SELL
• The stock rebounded sharply from a low of US$40.88 and tested the breakdown level of US$50.00. However, it failed to break back above the said resistance. The stock is likely to undergo a minor correction in order to regain the buying momentum.
• Indicators are marginally positive but losing momentum. Its MACD and RSI are starting to turn lower.
• There is a strong possibility that the stock could ease to US$42.96-44.26 next with a possibility of falling back to its low of US$40.88. Sell on upticks towards the US$50.00. Only a breakout above US$50.00-51.00 levels would see a change in trend.
Cisco Systems INC (CSCO US; US$15.91) – BUY
• Cisco’s strong rebound has pushed the stock past its downtrend channel resistance at US$15.94 recently but the buying began losing momentum. It closed back below its downtrend channel resistance. The stock needs to recover above this resistance to test the next resistance at US$18.00 and US$20.30 in the medium term.
• For now, its longer term indicators are starting to improve. It may be best to buy on weakness here. It daily indicators show a loss of momentum for the buyers, suggesting further retracement is likely.
• Buyers looking to buy Cisco may want to wait a while before buying. The 50% FR retracement from a low of US$13.61 to a high of US$16.94 is US$15.27 while its 62% FR is at US$14.88. Its 30-day SMA is at US$15.32. So, buying in a cluster of support at around these US$14.88-15.30 levels is a low risk buy. However, put a stop at US$13.55 just in case things turn out badly.
• From the chart, Microsoft is still sitting on the lower band of its long term downtrend channel. It has rebounded from a low of US$14.87 to current levels to retest the middle band resistance at US$17.20. Its 30-day SMA at US$17.22 is also standing in the way of the bulls. A breakout would be bullish for the stock and a retest of the upper resistance at US$20.20 is likely in the medium term.
• Technical indicators are showing signs of bullishness, supporting the change in momentum towards the bulls. However, its very short term indicators are overbought, suggesting that a pullback is likely.
• Aggressive investors looking to buy may want to wait for a pullback to S$16.18 or S$15.50 to buy. Cut losses if prices falls back below the Mar lows of S$14.87.
3M (MMM US; US$45.93) – SELL
• The stock rebounded sharply from a low of US$40.88 and tested the breakdown level of US$50.00. However, it failed to break back above the said resistance. The stock is likely to undergo a minor correction in order to regain the buying momentum.
• Indicators are marginally positive but losing momentum. Its MACD and RSI are starting to turn lower.
• There is a strong possibility that the stock could ease to US$42.96-44.26 next with a possibility of falling back to its low of US$40.88. Sell on upticks towards the US$50.00. Only a breakout above US$50.00-51.00 levels would see a change in trend.
Cisco Systems INC (CSCO US; US$15.91) – BUY
• Cisco’s strong rebound has pushed the stock past its downtrend channel resistance at US$15.94 recently but the buying began losing momentum. It closed back below its downtrend channel resistance. The stock needs to recover above this resistance to test the next resistance at US$18.00 and US$20.30 in the medium term.
• For now, its longer term indicators are starting to improve. It may be best to buy on weakness here. It daily indicators show a loss of momentum for the buyers, suggesting further retracement is likely.
• Buyers looking to buy Cisco may want to wait a while before buying. The 50% FR retracement from a low of US$13.61 to a high of US$16.94 is US$15.27 while its 62% FR is at US$14.88. Its 30-day SMA is at US$15.32. So, buying in a cluster of support at around these US$14.88-15.30 levels is a low risk buy. However, put a stop at US$13.55 just in case things turn out badly.
SSE A Share hit 200 day moving average soon
SSE A SHARE IDX = 2,469 (less than 100points away from 200Day Moving Average)
Bank of America's Bernstein Says Sell Bank Stocks After Rally
Investors should sell bank stocks after they rallied 12 percent today because the Treasury Department's plan to buy toxic assets won't stop profits from dropping, Bank of America Corp.'s Richard Bernstein said. Removing devalued loans and securities from banks' balance sheets is a short-term solution that will delay the problem's ultimate solution, which is bank takeovers, Bernstein said. The government won't be able to inflate the prices banks receive for selling bad assets indefinitely, he added.
"The history of bubbles shows quite well that financial sector consolidation is inevitable," Bernstein, Bank of America's chief investment strategist, wrote in a research note. "Financial stocks will be attractive when the government tries to speed up that inevitable process. However, to the contrary, the government continues to attempt to stymie that inevitable consolidation."
The Standard & Poor's 500 Financials Index has climbed 51 percent since March 6 after Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said they've become profitable. The measure surged 12 percent as of 3:10 p.m. today in New York.
Bernstein compared the U.S. plan to Japan's response in the 1990s, when the government, faced with public opposition to its bailouts of banks, waited before trying to fix its financial system. That resulted in the "Lost Decade," in which economic growth averaged less than 1 percent a year and the unemployment rate more than doubled.
The Obama administration unveiled its plan to remove toxic assets from the books of the nation's banks earlier, betting that it can revive the U.S. financial system without resorting to outright nationalization.
The plan is aimed at financing as much as $1 trillion in purchases of illiquid real-estate assets, using $75 billion to $100 billion of the Treasury's remaining bank-rescue funds. The Public-Private Investment Program will also rely on Federal Reserve financing and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. debt guarantees, the Treasury said in a statement in Washington.
"The history of bubbles shows quite well that financial sector consolidation is inevitable," Bernstein, Bank of America's chief investment strategist, wrote in a research note. "Financial stocks will be attractive when the government tries to speed up that inevitable process. However, to the contrary, the government continues to attempt to stymie that inevitable consolidation."
The Standard & Poor's 500 Financials Index has climbed 51 percent since March 6 after Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said they've become profitable. The measure surged 12 percent as of 3:10 p.m. today in New York.
Bernstein compared the U.S. plan to Japan's response in the 1990s, when the government, faced with public opposition to its bailouts of banks, waited before trying to fix its financial system. That resulted in the "Lost Decade," in which economic growth averaged less than 1 percent a year and the unemployment rate more than doubled.
The Obama administration unveiled its plan to remove toxic assets from the books of the nation's banks earlier, betting that it can revive the U.S. financial system without resorting to outright nationalization.
The plan is aimed at financing as much as $1 trillion in purchases of illiquid real-estate assets, using $75 billion to $100 billion of the Treasury's remaining bank-rescue funds. The Public-Private Investment Program will also rely on Federal Reserve financing and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. debt guarantees, the Treasury said in a statement in Washington.
STI technical.. where to go next?
As expected, the STI received another lift from the surge on Wall Street overnight and the market was keen to attempt the key 1700 resistance (which is also near the 100-day moving average).
In fact, the STI made two attempts this morning ? the first was not quite successfully and while the index appears to have done so on its second attempt, the intraday technical indicators are looking a little mixed.
The intraday MACD has just cut up again deep inside the positive zone, suggesting that the overall market tone remains bullish; but the intraday RSI is now showing deep overbought signals.
And with the US index futures easing further, we believe the upside in the afternoon may be quite limited; profit-taking may start to emerge, especially on some of the more speculative counters.
We continue to see the 10-month downtrend line ? currently hovering around 1757 (dropping by about 5 points per day) ? as the next big hurdle.
And should the index fail to hold above 1700, we could see a pull back to 1652 (50-day MA), ahead of 1600 (30-day MA).
Monday, March 23, 2009
Transcu breakout now?
Third attempts for $0.25 resistance.... chance of breakout is higher this time round
Sraits Times Index - Bullish
Sraits Times Index = 1,638, after crossing yellowline, it also crossed 1,632 resistance... Bullish
As expected, the Asian markets received a lift from the positive developments in the US, and the Singapore market was no exception. On the technical front, the STI broke above the 1600 resistance (30-day MA) with ease, with the index's rally coming to a hiatus at 1630-1640 region (some minor peaks and troughs) as we had anticipated.
While the intraday technical indicators point towards a slight pullback in the afternoon, we note that they remain pretty positive. We see immediate support at 1621 (upper channel resistance-turned-support), ahead of 1600. On the upside, there seems to be a relatively strong cap at 1650 (50-day MA and upper Bollinger Band).
Friday, March 20, 2009
Yanlord - take profit
Yanlord = $1.00. Since the breakout on 13 Mar, it has gone up 20%.... Consider taking profit
Dow at the crossroad
DJ INDU AVERAGE 7,400 or 11 points below yellowline, at the crossroad...support at greenline 7,218)
Sell Tehnically Hyflux, SembCorp, SGX
Hyflux (HYF SP; S$1.44) – SELL
• The stock broke below its consolidation triangle and continued to fall to recent lows. Yesterday’s sharp fall as formed a bearish engulfing candle on its daily chart. The downtrend would likely continue with a test of S$1.34 and S$1.21 support again before a bottom is formed.
• Technical readings on its indicators are mild positive and losing momentum. The RSI is no longer oversold, suggesting that the stock could still fall from here.
• Any rebound should be seen as an opportunity to sell into strength. Resistance is at S$1.50 and S$1.64.
Hyflux is a water treatment specialist providing integrated treatment systems for advanced water treatment and membrane filtration. It also provides one-stop shop service for the design, fabrication, installation, commissioning and maintenance of treatment systems for water purification, wastewater treatment and water recycling.
SembCorp Industries (SCI SP; S$2.07) – SELL
• The stock appears to be well support above the S$2.00 support. It is now forming a descending triangle. A break below the S$2.00 support is bearish.
• Indicators are mixed at the moment but the sharp hook down on its RSI is slightly bearish for the stock.
• Falling below its 30-day SMA is also another bearish signal. Maintain a sell on strength strategy for now with the next support at S$1.70 if the S$2.00 support fails. Resistance is at S$2.25 and S$2.41.
SembCorp Industries’ principal activities are those of an investment holding company, as well as the corporate headquarters, which gives strategic direction and provides management services to its subsidiaries.
Singapore Exchange (SGX SP; S$4.70) – SELL
• The stock has rebounded from a low of S$4.00 to current levels. It tested its strong resistance at S$4.90-5.00 but failed to breakout. It is now sitting just above its 30-day SMA.
• MACD has stayed positive but the RSI is slowly turning down again. If the stock can hold above its 30-day SMA, then we could see a retest of its strong resistance at the S%5.00 levels.
• However, a break below the S$4.67 level could send the stock lower S$4.48 and S$4.30. Since the longer term trend is still down, we prefer to sell on strength for now.
SGX owns and operates the only integrated securities exchange and derivatives exchange in Singapore and their related clearing houses. The securities exchange was the first fully electronic and floorless exchange in Asia.
• The stock broke below its consolidation triangle and continued to fall to recent lows. Yesterday’s sharp fall as formed a bearish engulfing candle on its daily chart. The downtrend would likely continue with a test of S$1.34 and S$1.21 support again before a bottom is formed.
• Technical readings on its indicators are mild positive and losing momentum. The RSI is no longer oversold, suggesting that the stock could still fall from here.
• Any rebound should be seen as an opportunity to sell into strength. Resistance is at S$1.50 and S$1.64.
Hyflux is a water treatment specialist providing integrated treatment systems for advanced water treatment and membrane filtration. It also provides one-stop shop service for the design, fabrication, installation, commissioning and maintenance of treatment systems for water purification, wastewater treatment and water recycling.
SembCorp Industries (SCI SP; S$2.07) – SELL
• The stock appears to be well support above the S$2.00 support. It is now forming a descending triangle. A break below the S$2.00 support is bearish.
• Indicators are mixed at the moment but the sharp hook down on its RSI is slightly bearish for the stock.
• Falling below its 30-day SMA is also another bearish signal. Maintain a sell on strength strategy for now with the next support at S$1.70 if the S$2.00 support fails. Resistance is at S$2.25 and S$2.41.
SembCorp Industries’ principal activities are those of an investment holding company, as well as the corporate headquarters, which gives strategic direction and provides management services to its subsidiaries.
Singapore Exchange (SGX SP; S$4.70) – SELL
• The stock has rebounded from a low of S$4.00 to current levels. It tested its strong resistance at S$4.90-5.00 but failed to breakout. It is now sitting just above its 30-day SMA.
• MACD has stayed positive but the RSI is slowly turning down again. If the stock can hold above its 30-day SMA, then we could see a retest of its strong resistance at the S%5.00 levels.
• However, a break below the S$4.67 level could send the stock lower S$4.48 and S$4.30. Since the longer term trend is still down, we prefer to sell on strength for now.
SGX owns and operates the only integrated securities exchange and derivatives exchange in Singapore and their related clearing houses. The securities exchange was the first fully electronic and floorless exchange in Asia.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Buy Pacific Andes, SembCorp Ind, Taisan; SCI says no Right Issue
Pacific Andes (PAH SP; S$0.155)
• Pacific Andes (PAH) announced that they have bought back US$4m worth of outstanding bonds. While the purchase price was not disclosed, Bloomberg’s latest price at 55cts, translates to a one-off profit of around S$2.7m or HK$14m.
• While the amount is quite insignificant compared to our FY09 profit forecast of HK$503.6m, we believe that the move is a positive one. At 55cts, the bonds are trading at a yield of 31%, making the bond buyback and cancellation a very profitable trade for the company, and an efficient use of cash. Also the bond buyback may allay market concerns regarding the company’s high gearing.
• Maintain Outperform with a target price of S$0.36.
SembCorp Industries (SCI SP; S$2.13)
• SembCorp Industries (SCI) sought a trading halt this morning in relation to Dow Jones reporting that the company is looking at a rights issue. SCI has since clarified in an announcement that this is not true. We have also personally reconfirmed with SCI that they are not looking at issuing any new shares or rights now. Its share price fell 4.9% this morning. The trading halt has been lifted.
• Maintain Outperform with a target price of S$2.46.
China Taisan (CTSAN SP; S$0.10)
• Technical BUY
• The stock is now forming a bullish wedge pattern. It is trading near the lower end of its bullish wedge pattern. Daily MACD has yet to turn bullish but is slowly improving. RSI is also slowly rising but there are no signs of conviction from the bulls yet.
• Aggressive investors should buy only on weakness, preferably near the support at S$0.085-0.09. Cut losses if the price falls below the S$0.08. Upside resistance at S$0.12-0.125 could be tested soon. A breakout above this resistance is bullish for the stock with the next resistances at S$0.15-0155.
• China Taisan trades at 0.55x historical P/BV with an 18.1% dividend yield. The share price is also backed by net cash of 64.2%.
• Pacific Andes (PAH) announced that they have bought back US$4m worth of outstanding bonds. While the purchase price was not disclosed, Bloomberg’s latest price at 55cts, translates to a one-off profit of around S$2.7m or HK$14m.
• While the amount is quite insignificant compared to our FY09 profit forecast of HK$503.6m, we believe that the move is a positive one. At 55cts, the bonds are trading at a yield of 31%, making the bond buyback and cancellation a very profitable trade for the company, and an efficient use of cash. Also the bond buyback may allay market concerns regarding the company’s high gearing.
• Maintain Outperform with a target price of S$0.36.
SembCorp Industries (SCI SP; S$2.13)
• SembCorp Industries (SCI) sought a trading halt this morning in relation to Dow Jones reporting that the company is looking at a rights issue. SCI has since clarified in an announcement that this is not true. We have also personally reconfirmed with SCI that they are not looking at issuing any new shares or rights now. Its share price fell 4.9% this morning. The trading halt has been lifted.
• Maintain Outperform with a target price of S$2.46.
China Taisan (CTSAN SP; S$0.10)
• Technical BUY
• The stock is now forming a bullish wedge pattern. It is trading near the lower end of its bullish wedge pattern. Daily MACD has yet to turn bullish but is slowly improving. RSI is also slowly rising but there are no signs of conviction from the bulls yet.
• Aggressive investors should buy only on weakness, preferably near the support at S$0.085-0.09. Cut losses if the price falls below the S$0.08. Upside resistance at S$0.12-0.125 could be tested soon. A breakout above this resistance is bullish for the stock with the next resistances at S$0.15-0155.
• China Taisan trades at 0.55x historical P/BV with an 18.1% dividend yield. The share price is also backed by net cash of 64.2%.
Rally Due For Consolidation After Rally
The S&P 500 is exerting a strong influence on the STI at this juncture. It has strong overhead resistance in the 785 to 805 region. Based on the recent close, it should rally to test that level soon. We need to observe how the S&P reacts to those levels before assessing whether there is still more upside to the current move. When the S&P 500 is testing that level, the STI should begin to slow down after one more upward push as well.
On 17Mar09, the S&P 500 closed near the high of the day at 778. Contrast this with the day before when price rallied but closed below its opening near the day’s low. This formed a shooting star candle that tells us a lot of selling came into the market. The combination of these 2 days tells us that there has been a good amount of selling, but it has been absorbed by new buying. This usually points to higher prices.
However, there are multiple resistance levels at 781 (projected monthly resistance), 785 (projected weekly resistance), 795 (61.8% retracement), 800 (round number) and 805 (approximate 50 day moving average and previous lows). How the S&P 500 reacts to these levels will largely determine whether the up move still has steam. Nonetheless, we should at least see prices begin to slow down and consolidate around this region. The 795 to 800 mark looks like an attractive target.
The S&P 500 has rallied sharply over the past week. It has the trappings of a technically driven move, with multiple oversold oscillators unfurling and taking prices higher. Although the move is displaying a good amount of upside momentum on the daily charts, we do not believe that this marks the end of the current bear market.
From the weekly chart above, we can see that the current move is not particularly significant with regard to the overall trend of the S&P 500. In other words, while the daily charts are rallying it has barely begun to register in the weekly charts. Because of this, we classify the move as a bear market rally for now.
Yellowline of UOB, OCBC, DBS - DBS ready to sell
UOB=$9.31 (Yellowline now at $10.049)
OCBC Bk=$4.60 (Yellowline resistance at $4.623)
DBS=$7.72 (Nearer to yellowline at $7.77..ready to sell)
CitiDev - HTF Formation
CITYDEV = $5.03 = HTF Formation, a breakout of this formation is very bullish
STI upside cap at 1600
As expected, the STI extended yesterday's rally this morning, buoyed by positive sentiments in both local and world markets.
But based on the mixed signals shown by the intraday technical indicators, the STI could continue to range trade.
Any upside is likely to be capped at 1600 (psychological and 30-day moving average), ahead of 1660 (50-day MA & upper Bollinger band).
Initial support remains at 1556 (recent troughs), followed by key 1530 (3-month downtrend resistance-turned-support line) level.
Sell Keppel Land, Suntec Reit, F&N Technically
Keppel Land (KPLD SP; S$1.24) – SELL
• It broke below its consolidation triangle and hit a low of S$0.985. It has since rebounded to retest the breakdown level of S$1.28. Again, there is a cluster of resistances around these levels. Its 30-day SMA is also at S$1.28.
• Daily MACD has confirmed its positive cross but the momentum is weak while RSI is still below the neutral mark. Note that the RSI is no longer oversold now, which suggests that there is room on the downside from here.
• The stock remains a sell on strength. Its tough resistance is at S$1.30 is unlikely to be broken now. It could retest its recent lows of S$0.985 again in the coming days. A break below it could see the stock fall to its 2002 lows at S$0.89 before bottoming out. Only a break above the S$1.42 levels would cancel this downside target.
Keppel Land is the property arm of the Keppel Group, one of Singapore’s largest multinational groups with key businesses in offshore and marine, infrastructure, and property.
Fraser & Neave (FNN SP; S$2.17) – SELL
• The stock fell to a new 52-week low at S$1.85 before rebounding to retest the October lows at S$2.20. Again, the stock is now facing heavy resistances around these levels. Its 30-day SMA at S$2.40 would form the upper resistance level. A breakout above these levels would likely cancel out the downside targets.
• Indicators are mostly positive with only the RSI starting to hook down lower. This could be a sign pointing to weakness in the bulls. The longer term charts are still looking negative.
• Hence, this minor rebound should be seen as an opportunity to take profits. A reversal from here could see the stock fall back to close the gap at S$2.05- 2.07. Should the stock fall further below the gap, then it could easily retest the S$1.85 lows again.
Fraser and Neave is one of Southeast Asia's leading companies and its core businesses are the production and sale of soft drinks, beer & stout, dairy products; property investment and development and publishing and printing.
Suntec REIT (SUN SP; S$0.50) – SELL
• The stock hit a new all time low of S$0.495 yesterday but closed marginally higher. This new all time low suggests that the stock is technically weak. Avoid buying the stock until a short term bottom has been formed.
• The stock is still a Sell despite an oversold RSI. MACD has remained negative supports our view of selling on rebounds.
• It could continue to drift lower towards its next support levels at S$0.46 and S$0.42 next. Resistance is seen at S$0.55 and S$0.58. Continue to sell on rebound.
Suntec REIT owns prime office and retail space in the Central Business District of Singapore. Their portfolio was underpinned by a diversified pool of more than 411 retail and 124 office tenants as of 30 September 2007.
• It broke below its consolidation triangle and hit a low of S$0.985. It has since rebounded to retest the breakdown level of S$1.28. Again, there is a cluster of resistances around these levels. Its 30-day SMA is also at S$1.28.
• Daily MACD has confirmed its positive cross but the momentum is weak while RSI is still below the neutral mark. Note that the RSI is no longer oversold now, which suggests that there is room on the downside from here.
• The stock remains a sell on strength. Its tough resistance is at S$1.30 is unlikely to be broken now. It could retest its recent lows of S$0.985 again in the coming days. A break below it could see the stock fall to its 2002 lows at S$0.89 before bottoming out. Only a break above the S$1.42 levels would cancel this downside target.
Keppel Land is the property arm of the Keppel Group, one of Singapore’s largest multinational groups with key businesses in offshore and marine, infrastructure, and property.
Fraser & Neave (FNN SP; S$2.17) – SELL
• The stock fell to a new 52-week low at S$1.85 before rebounding to retest the October lows at S$2.20. Again, the stock is now facing heavy resistances around these levels. Its 30-day SMA at S$2.40 would form the upper resistance level. A breakout above these levels would likely cancel out the downside targets.
• Indicators are mostly positive with only the RSI starting to hook down lower. This could be a sign pointing to weakness in the bulls. The longer term charts are still looking negative.
• Hence, this minor rebound should be seen as an opportunity to take profits. A reversal from here could see the stock fall back to close the gap at S$2.05- 2.07. Should the stock fall further below the gap, then it could easily retest the S$1.85 lows again.
Fraser and Neave is one of Southeast Asia's leading companies and its core businesses are the production and sale of soft drinks, beer & stout, dairy products; property investment and development and publishing and printing.
Suntec REIT (SUN SP; S$0.50) – SELL
• The stock hit a new all time low of S$0.495 yesterday but closed marginally higher. This new all time low suggests that the stock is technically weak. Avoid buying the stock until a short term bottom has been formed.
• The stock is still a Sell despite an oversold RSI. MACD has remained negative supports our view of selling on rebounds.
• It could continue to drift lower towards its next support levels at S$0.46 and S$0.42 next. Resistance is seen at S$0.55 and S$0.58. Continue to sell on rebound.
Suntec REIT owns prime office and retail space in the Central Business District of Singapore. Their portfolio was underpinned by a diversified pool of more than 411 retail and 124 office tenants as of 30 September 2007.
Sell Europtronic, Foreland Fabrictech, Z-Obee
Europtronic Group (ERT SP; S$0.03) – SELL
• The stock continued to trade below its 30-day SMA. Due to the lack of trading volume, it is quite impossible to find a pattern that suggests a bottom is in. Continue to avoid for now and look for opportunities elsewhere.
• Technical readings on its indicators may look good at the moment but the lack of trading volume means that the stock is susceptible to volatile swings. Hence making it a high risk trade.
• Only the very keen buyers should buy near the S$0.02 support. Otherwise, it is best to sell and continue to stay away. Resistance is at S$0.04 and S$0.06.
Europtronic Group is a manufacturer and distributor of electronic components that are essential in the use of electrical, electronic, and information technology products. The Company produces its own brand of film capacitors at two state of the art factories located in Shenzhen and Suzhou, China.
Foreland Fabrictech Holdings (FLFT SP; S$0.065) – SELL
• From the looks of the chart, the stock is still in its bearish long term downtrend. There was a false breakout in February but the stock quickly fell back into the downtrend channel. This shows that the bulls are not quite ready to carry the stock higher.
• Indicators continue to show weakness with support at yesterday’s low of S$0.05.
• Resistances at S$0.045 and S$0.07 are likely to keep the bulls at bay. Avoid buying until a breakout above its 30-day SMA, which is at S$0.105 right now.
Foreland Fabritech is a vertically integrated manufacturer principally engaged in producing functional and normal fabrics. Its production process includes weaving, dyeing, coating and finishing of fabrics.
Z-Obee Holdings (ZBEE SP; S$0.03) – BUY
• The stock appears to be well supported around current levels but this could be an illusion due to the lack of trading volume. Hence, the breakout of its bullish wedge pattern does not suggest that it is out of the woods just yet.
• Both indicators continue to suggest that the stock is still in consolidation.
• Investors could either wait for the breakout above the S$0.045 resistance to buy or accumulate around the S$0.02 support. Breaching the S$0.045 resistance is positive for the stock with the next resistance at S$0.07. Cut loss if it breaks S$0.015.
Z-Obee is a full-set solutions house that provides complete design services spanning the entire handset design cycle, which involves industrial design, mechanical design, software design, hardware design, procurement of hardware, prototype testing, pilot production and production support.
• The stock continued to trade below its 30-day SMA. Due to the lack of trading volume, it is quite impossible to find a pattern that suggests a bottom is in. Continue to avoid for now and look for opportunities elsewhere.
• Technical readings on its indicators may look good at the moment but the lack of trading volume means that the stock is susceptible to volatile swings. Hence making it a high risk trade.
• Only the very keen buyers should buy near the S$0.02 support. Otherwise, it is best to sell and continue to stay away. Resistance is at S$0.04 and S$0.06.
Europtronic Group is a manufacturer and distributor of electronic components that are essential in the use of electrical, electronic, and information technology products. The Company produces its own brand of film capacitors at two state of the art factories located in Shenzhen and Suzhou, China.
Foreland Fabrictech Holdings (FLFT SP; S$0.065) – SELL
• From the looks of the chart, the stock is still in its bearish long term downtrend. There was a false breakout in February but the stock quickly fell back into the downtrend channel. This shows that the bulls are not quite ready to carry the stock higher.
• Indicators continue to show weakness with support at yesterday’s low of S$0.05.
• Resistances at S$0.045 and S$0.07 are likely to keep the bulls at bay. Avoid buying until a breakout above its 30-day SMA, which is at S$0.105 right now.
Foreland Fabritech is a vertically integrated manufacturer principally engaged in producing functional and normal fabrics. Its production process includes weaving, dyeing, coating and finishing of fabrics.
Z-Obee Holdings (ZBEE SP; S$0.03) – BUY
• The stock appears to be well supported around current levels but this could be an illusion due to the lack of trading volume. Hence, the breakout of its bullish wedge pattern does not suggest that it is out of the woods just yet.
• Both indicators continue to suggest that the stock is still in consolidation.
• Investors could either wait for the breakout above the S$0.045 resistance to buy or accumulate around the S$0.02 support. Breaching the S$0.045 resistance is positive for the stock with the next resistance at S$0.07. Cut loss if it breaks S$0.015.
Z-Obee is a full-set solutions house that provides complete design services spanning the entire handset design cycle, which involves industrial design, mechanical design, software design, hardware design, procurement of hardware, prototype testing, pilot production and production support.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Straits Times Index unable to go higher
STI = 1,578. Unable to go higher than 1,588 for last 4 trading days.....turning cautious as shorterm indicators turning negative.
Indo Agri - Likely more upside in the medium term
- Since the Oct ’08 low was reached, Indo Agri has been trading within a 4.5-month uptrend channel. Although a technical correction could happen soon after its recent rally, we still expect Indo Agri to extend its recovery to test the top channel line again in the medium term.
- Over the last 2.5 months, OBV has indicated a positive divergence to the price action, providing a strong indication of more upside to come. The MACD indicator has not only just cut upwards but has also cross the centre line, further supporting our bullish view for this counter.
- Immediate resistance has been identified at $0.64 (recent peaks), followed by $0.72 (top channel line)
- Immediate support is likely to be at $0.535 (recent resistance-turned support), followed by $0.455 (recent low and lower channel line).
Technical View on Ezra Holdings
• We update our technical view on EZRA. The stock is now testing its 30-day SMA. If the stock fails to clear this resistance, it would likely mark the end of this rebound. As the stock is still tracing lower highs and lower lows, we believe that the stock is still in a downtrend.
• Indicators may be positive in the short term but its RSI is beginning to turn downwards. Its weekly indicators (not shown here) are still pointing to lower levels. For now, the stock remains a sell on strength.
• Upside resistance is now at S$0.57 (30-day SMA) and S$0.63 while support is at S$0.47. Breaking below S$0.47 could see a pick up in selling pressure and probably push it down to retest the S$0.325 October low.
• Fundamentally, our target price for Ezra is S$0.70.
• Indicators may be positive in the short term but its RSI is beginning to turn downwards. Its weekly indicators (not shown here) are still pointing to lower levels. For now, the stock remains a sell on strength.
• Upside resistance is now at S$0.57 (30-day SMA) and S$0.63 while support is at S$0.47. Breaking below S$0.47 could see a pick up in selling pressure and probably push it down to retest the S$0.325 October low.
• Fundamentally, our target price for Ezra is S$0.70.
DOW end of technical rebound?
DJ INDU AVERAGE, near yellowline, could signal end of this technical rebound
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
The rebound of Citi is overed?
CITIGROUP = 2.33, last night rebound has reached yellowlien at US$2.60.
StraitsAsia trying hard the resistance
StraitsAsia is trying the resistance at $0.845 again this morning with strong volume. The breakout at $0.845 could be real.... Volume of 23mln half day is much higher than past 20D Average volume of 15mlm.
DBS UOB still a Sell, so do Sino-Env
DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP; S$7.55) – SELL
• Since falling below its trading range of S$7.60 and S$10.30, the stock hit a low of S$6.42. It has now rebounded upwards to test the breakdown level of the said trading range at S$7.60. There is a cluster of resistance at the S$7.60- 7.78 levels.
• Continue to Sell on strength for now as the stock is less likely to breakout above the resistance cluster. The S$6.60, S$6.42 and S$6.00 levels could still be tested first before this downtrend ends. Only a breakout above S$8.00would negate this bearish outlook.
• Readings on the indicators are positive. MACD has confirmed its golden cross while its RSI is rising. There could a tad more upside but as long as the trend is still down, we would prefer to Sell on strength.
DBS Group’s principal activities consist of investment holding, banking and financing, the provision of mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, corporate advisory services, nominee and trustee services, funds management services, stockbroking, primary dealership in Singapore Government securities, merchant banking, factoring, credit card and venture capital operations, and other financial services.
United Overseas Bank (UOB SP; S$9.35) – SELL
• From the looks of the chart, UOB is still bearish despite the sharp rebound recently. UOB is now rebounding to retest the S$10.00 psychological resistance and also the base of its previous trading range at S$10.50.
• The stock is now no longer oversold. MACD is positive but the momentum is not as strong as it should be. The MACD could possibly still do a rollover and head back lower from here. It is best to remain cautious for now.
• Hence, we are sticking to our Sell on strength call as the resistance at S$10.00 (gap) and S$10.50 are likely to cap gains for now. Only a breakout above S$10.50 would suggest that this downtrend has ended.
UOB provides a wide range of financial services through its global network of branches/offices and subsidiaries/associates.
Sino-Environment Tech Group (SINE SP; S$0.085) – SELL
• The stock gapped down sharply earlier in the month and this is usually a very bad sign. Any rebound should be seen as an opportunity to sell out. Resistance at S$0.15 is likely to be firm.
• The stock is still a Sell despite an oversold RSI. MACD has remained negative supports our view of selling on rebounds.
• Even though it appears to be a buy at currently perceived cheap levels, the risk of further downside is still high. Continue to avoid this stock as stale bulls selling would likely cap the upside.
The Group is an environmental protection and waste recovery solution provider in China. It specialises in the treatment, management and recovery of volatile organic compounds ('VOC') in particular toluene, from industrial waste gas.
• Since falling below its trading range of S$7.60 and S$10.30, the stock hit a low of S$6.42. It has now rebounded upwards to test the breakdown level of the said trading range at S$7.60. There is a cluster of resistance at the S$7.60- 7.78 levels.
• Continue to Sell on strength for now as the stock is less likely to breakout above the resistance cluster. The S$6.60, S$6.42 and S$6.00 levels could still be tested first before this downtrend ends. Only a breakout above S$8.00would negate this bearish outlook.
• Readings on the indicators are positive. MACD has confirmed its golden cross while its RSI is rising. There could a tad more upside but as long as the trend is still down, we would prefer to Sell on strength.
DBS Group’s principal activities consist of investment holding, banking and financing, the provision of mortgage financing, lease and hire purchase financing, corporate advisory services, nominee and trustee services, funds management services, stockbroking, primary dealership in Singapore Government securities, merchant banking, factoring, credit card and venture capital operations, and other financial services.
United Overseas Bank (UOB SP; S$9.35) – SELL
• From the looks of the chart, UOB is still bearish despite the sharp rebound recently. UOB is now rebounding to retest the S$10.00 psychological resistance and also the base of its previous trading range at S$10.50.
• The stock is now no longer oversold. MACD is positive but the momentum is not as strong as it should be. The MACD could possibly still do a rollover and head back lower from here. It is best to remain cautious for now.
• Hence, we are sticking to our Sell on strength call as the resistance at S$10.00 (gap) and S$10.50 are likely to cap gains for now. Only a breakout above S$10.50 would suggest that this downtrend has ended.
UOB provides a wide range of financial services through its global network of branches/offices and subsidiaries/associates.
Sino-Environment Tech Group (SINE SP; S$0.085) – SELL
• The stock gapped down sharply earlier in the month and this is usually a very bad sign. Any rebound should be seen as an opportunity to sell out. Resistance at S$0.15 is likely to be firm.
• The stock is still a Sell despite an oversold RSI. MACD has remained negative supports our view of selling on rebounds.
• Even though it appears to be a buy at currently perceived cheap levels, the risk of further downside is still high. Continue to avoid this stock as stale bulls selling would likely cap the upside.
The Group is an environmental protection and waste recovery solution provider in China. It specialises in the treatment, management and recovery of volatile organic compounds ('VOC') in particular toluene, from industrial waste gas.
Buy BOA, Sell GE and HP
Bank of America Corp (BAC US; US$5.76) – BUY
• Since our last Technical sell call, the stock fell to only US$3.00, short of its multi-year low at US$2.55. As we mentioned in our earlier report, the downtrend would likely have ended if the stock were to take out is bullish wedge resistance. Not only did it breakout of its bullish wedge pattern, it also surpassed its 30-day SMA, which is another bullish sign.
• Technical indicators are showing signs of bullishness, supporting the change in momentum towards the bulls. The breakout of its RSI is a plus and together with the bullish divergence on its MACD, the trend may have change. We need to see higher highs and higher lows to confirm the change in trend.
• Since its very short term indicators are extremely overbought, there could be a pullback soon. A pullback to its 30-day SMA at S$4.90 or S$3.66 (its wedge support) could be an opportunity to buy. Cut losses if prices falls back below the Feb lows of S$2.55. Note that there is still a big risk to take even buying at lower levels.
General Electric (GE US; US$9.62) – SELL
• The stock rebounded sharply from a low of US$5.73 to current prices in 2 weeks. That is a gain of about 68% without much correction. GE is also facing some resistance around current levels. Failure to take out its 30-day SMA (at US$9.74) would suggest that there are still a lot of sellers out there.
• Indicators are marginally positive. Its MACD continue to expand but its RSI is still in a neutral position.
• There is a strong possibility that the stock could ease from current levels to close the gap at USS$7.83-7.95. Support is seen at gap levels and also at US$8.40. Sell on upticks.
Hewlett-Packard Co (HPQ US; US$29.45) – SELL
• HP’s strong rebound has pushed the stock close to its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (FR) levels (US$30.10). There is also a gap at US$29.96-30.08, which could act as a resistance as well. For now, the trend is still down unless this rally is strong enough to take out the 62% FR levels at US$33.00. Only then, the outlook would change for the better.
• In the short term, there could be a tad more upside but we do not expect it to be strong. MACD has just confirmed its golden cross but its RSI is still below the neutral mark.
• HP could retrace back to try to close the gap at US$27.11-27.60. A break below could even see the stock fall back to US$25.40 next.
• Since our last Technical sell call, the stock fell to only US$3.00, short of its multi-year low at US$2.55. As we mentioned in our earlier report, the downtrend would likely have ended if the stock were to take out is bullish wedge resistance. Not only did it breakout of its bullish wedge pattern, it also surpassed its 30-day SMA, which is another bullish sign.
• Technical indicators are showing signs of bullishness, supporting the change in momentum towards the bulls. The breakout of its RSI is a plus and together with the bullish divergence on its MACD, the trend may have change. We need to see higher highs and higher lows to confirm the change in trend.
• Since its very short term indicators are extremely overbought, there could be a pullback soon. A pullback to its 30-day SMA at S$4.90 or S$3.66 (its wedge support) could be an opportunity to buy. Cut losses if prices falls back below the Feb lows of S$2.55. Note that there is still a big risk to take even buying at lower levels.
General Electric (GE US; US$9.62) – SELL
• The stock rebounded sharply from a low of US$5.73 to current prices in 2 weeks. That is a gain of about 68% without much correction. GE is also facing some resistance around current levels. Failure to take out its 30-day SMA (at US$9.74) would suggest that there are still a lot of sellers out there.
• Indicators are marginally positive. Its MACD continue to expand but its RSI is still in a neutral position.
• There is a strong possibility that the stock could ease from current levels to close the gap at USS$7.83-7.95. Support is seen at gap levels and also at US$8.40. Sell on upticks.
Hewlett-Packard Co (HPQ US; US$29.45) – SELL
• HP’s strong rebound has pushed the stock close to its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (FR) levels (US$30.10). There is also a gap at US$29.96-30.08, which could act as a resistance as well. For now, the trend is still down unless this rally is strong enough to take out the 62% FR levels at US$33.00. Only then, the outlook would change for the better.
• In the short term, there could be a tad more upside but we do not expect it to be strong. MACD has just confirmed its golden cross but its RSI is still below the neutral mark.
• HP could retrace back to try to close the gap at US$27.11-27.60. A break below could even see the stock fall back to US$25.40 next.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Technically sell SMRT, ComfortDelgo, Oceanus Group
SMRT Corp (MRT SP; S$1.62) – SELL
• It is stuck in its medium term sideways trend between S$1.55-1.70. A breakout on either side would only confirm the trend.
• However, in the near term, it could continue to climb further as its daily MACD is about to move into positive territory while RSI is also on the rise.
• The stock could inch a tad higher towards the S$1.70 resistance. A breakout above S$1.77 would be bullish for the stock. However, since the longer term charts are still showing weakness, it is less likely that the S$1.77 will be breached in the near term.
• On the other hand, a break below the support at S$1.55 is bearish and the stock could then fall to test the S$1.42 low again. We would prefer to stay with the bears right now due to the weakness in the longer term charts. Maintain sell for now.
SMRT Corp is a holding company with transportation as its core business. SMRT Corp through its wholly-owned subsidiary, SMRT, operates the MRT system in Singapore. It also operates the Bukit Panjang light rapid transit system, provides an executive bus service, a stored value farecard ticketing service and specialist engineering consultancy services.
ComfortDelgro Corp (CD SP; S$1.34) – SELL
• The chart shows that the stock is still in its major downtrend. Until a breakout above the trend line resistance at S$1.45, the stock is under the control of bears. On top of that, it is also trading below its 30-day SMA.
• Technical indicators are mixed. MACD has confirmed its golden cross but its momentum is weak while RSI has turned down again.
• Sell into strength with resistance seen at S$1.33 and S$1.45. Prices could ease towards the S$1.16 levels again should the S$1.27 support fails.
ComfortDelgro's businesses include taxi, bus, rail, car rental and leasing, automotive engineering and maintenance services, inspection, test and assessment services, learner drivers’ instruction services, insurance brokerage services and outdoor advertising.
Oceanus Group (OCNUS SP; S$0.11) – SELL
• Has fallen below its 5-month sideways trend. The old support at S$0.115 is now the immediate resistance for the stock. The next resistance is at S$0.13.
• MACD has stayed negative but its RSI has turned upwards again. Mixed signals suggest that the stock is still in consolidation.
• The stock could see a minor rebound to test its resistances but it may still be best to sell and wait. There are still no buy signals as yet, hence buyers may want to wait a while longer before getting in. Support is at S$0.095 and S$0.075
Oceanus is a marine aquaculture specialist focusing on large scale; land based industrialised production and sale of premium quality Japanese Abalones. Its principal activities are the research and development, breeding, intensive production and sale of this luxury product.
• It is stuck in its medium term sideways trend between S$1.55-1.70. A breakout on either side would only confirm the trend.
• However, in the near term, it could continue to climb further as its daily MACD is about to move into positive territory while RSI is also on the rise.
• The stock could inch a tad higher towards the S$1.70 resistance. A breakout above S$1.77 would be bullish for the stock. However, since the longer term charts are still showing weakness, it is less likely that the S$1.77 will be breached in the near term.
• On the other hand, a break below the support at S$1.55 is bearish and the stock could then fall to test the S$1.42 low again. We would prefer to stay with the bears right now due to the weakness in the longer term charts. Maintain sell for now.
SMRT Corp is a holding company with transportation as its core business. SMRT Corp through its wholly-owned subsidiary, SMRT, operates the MRT system in Singapore. It also operates the Bukit Panjang light rapid transit system, provides an executive bus service, a stored value farecard ticketing service and specialist engineering consultancy services.
ComfortDelgro Corp (CD SP; S$1.34) – SELL
• The chart shows that the stock is still in its major downtrend. Until a breakout above the trend line resistance at S$1.45, the stock is under the control of bears. On top of that, it is also trading below its 30-day SMA.
• Technical indicators are mixed. MACD has confirmed its golden cross but its momentum is weak while RSI has turned down again.
• Sell into strength with resistance seen at S$1.33 and S$1.45. Prices could ease towards the S$1.16 levels again should the S$1.27 support fails.
ComfortDelgro's businesses include taxi, bus, rail, car rental and leasing, automotive engineering and maintenance services, inspection, test and assessment services, learner drivers’ instruction services, insurance brokerage services and outdoor advertising.
Oceanus Group (OCNUS SP; S$0.11) – SELL
• Has fallen below its 5-month sideways trend. The old support at S$0.115 is now the immediate resistance for the stock. The next resistance is at S$0.13.
• MACD has stayed negative but its RSI has turned upwards again. Mixed signals suggest that the stock is still in consolidation.
• The stock could see a minor rebound to test its resistances but it may still be best to sell and wait. There are still no buy signals as yet, hence buyers may want to wait a while longer before getting in. Support is at S$0.095 and S$0.075
Oceanus is a marine aquaculture specialist focusing on large scale; land based industrialised production and sale of premium quality Japanese Abalones. Its principal activities are the research and development, breeding, intensive production and sale of this luxury product.
HANG SENG INDEX - limited upside from here
HSI = 12,754. Reached yellowline at 12,806..... Upside limited from here....
Technical view on Capitaland and Citi Dev
CapitaLand
Over the past 2 days, the S&P 500 has rallied strongly. The STI followed suit after marginally breaking long term lows. This move up by the STI has taken Capitaland up with it. Short-term momentum has been decisively strong, closing above the 200 period moving average for the 1 hour charts.
Price is moving angling away from the 30 and 50 period average quickly, indicating the possibility of a fast move in play. We recommend going long in the first hour of trading if Capitaland continues to rally. Price targets are at S$2.26 and S$2.35. Recommended stop is around S$2.00 to S$2.02.
City Dev
City Dev has also risen sharply with the STI over the past few days of trading. Today City Dev gapped up on the open before rallying higher for the day. Breakaway gapssuch as these are indicative of strong buying momentum.
It has also angled away sharply from the 30 and 50 period averages and tested the200 period. We recommend going long on close above S$4.93 with stop at S$4.70.
This would be a bet that current momentum will be continuing upward. If a sharpmove is truly in play, price should not retrace to S$4.70. There is resistance at S$5.50 and we recommend taking profits slightly under thatlevel, at S$5.48.
Over the past 2 days, the S&P 500 has rallied strongly. The STI followed suit after marginally breaking long term lows. This move up by the STI has taken Capitaland up with it. Short-term momentum has been decisively strong, closing above the 200 period moving average for the 1 hour charts.
Price is moving angling away from the 30 and 50 period average quickly, indicating the possibility of a fast move in play. We recommend going long in the first hour of trading if Capitaland continues to rally. Price targets are at S$2.26 and S$2.35. Recommended stop is around S$2.00 to S$2.02.
City Dev
City Dev has also risen sharply with the STI over the past few days of trading. Today City Dev gapped up on the open before rallying higher for the day. Breakaway gapssuch as these are indicative of strong buying momentum.
It has also angled away sharply from the 30 and 50 period averages and tested the200 period. We recommend going long on close above S$4.93 with stop at S$4.70.
This would be a bet that current momentum will be continuing upward. If a sharpmove is truly in play, price should not retrace to S$4.70. There is resistance at S$5.50 and we recommend taking profits slightly under thatlevel, at S$5.48.
Friday, March 13, 2009
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