Thursday, February 19, 2009

Technically sell OCBC, Venture; Buy Meiban

Technically…

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp (OCBC SP; S$4.89 – SELL): Breaking below the S$4.80 support level is bearing over the immediate term.

• If it breaks below the S$4.80 support level, sentiment may turn bearish over the immediate term. Next support is much weaker at S$4.65, S$4.41 and S$3.90.

• Technical indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. MACD has confirmed its dead cross and stayed negative while RSI is still flat.

• Sell now ahead of the breakdown. Resistance is seen at S$5.15 and S$5.48 levels. Unless it can cut above these resistances to reverse the short-term bearish trend, any intermittent rebound may not be sustainable.


Meiban Group (MEI SP; S$0.145 – BUY): The breakout could lift the stock towards the S$0.165-S$0.17 resistance next.

• The stock broke out of its consolidation triangle after taking out its resistance at S$0.14.

• Both indicators are still showing positive signs.

• Aggressive investors could buy on weakness but put a stop below the S$0.12 level. The breakout could lift the stock towards the S$0.165-S$0.17 resistance next. Other investors should just stand aside for now.


Venture Corp (VMS SP; S$4.00 – SELL): A breakdown below S$4.00 would likely see the continuation of a longer term downtrend towards the S$3.60-3.65 levels next.

• The stock has broken out above its medium term trend line resistance. However, it is currently trading below the 30-day SMA at S$4.16. The next resistance is at S$4.70.

• MACD is still marginally positive but RSI has hooked downwards. Mixed indicators suggest that it is still in consolidation.

• After failing to close above its 30-day SMA after trying 3 times, suggest that the buying momentum is weak. There should have been a rally after the breakout of its medium term trend line but it appears that there is none forthcoming. A breakdown below S$4.00 would likely see the continuation of a longer term downtrend towards the S$3.60-S$3.65 levels next.



Fundamentally…

Asia-Pacific Strategic Investments (APSI SP; S$0.145 - SELL): APSI reflected a net loss of S$1.8m for 2QFY09 as demand for pre-need burial niches continue to falter. Maintain our Sell recommendation but cut target price to S$0.11 (from S$0.14) based on 2x P/BV.

China Essence Group (CESS SP; S$0.215 – BUY): A muted 3Q with unit sales being offset by ASP decline and margin erosion on higher raw material price. Reducing forecasts to factor in higher potato cost and lower margin. TP raised to S$0.34 as peer CY09 P/BV has moved up to 0.5x from 0.4x previously.

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