Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Global equity technicals - Minor rebound soon?

As expected, the US stockmarket correction has kicked in. However, it appears likely that this correction phase is at its tail end. Assuming wave "c" equals wave "a", we are looking at an S&P target of 875. The daily chart shows the likely completion of minor wave "a" soon, to be followed by a minor wave "b" rebound. But it is unlikely that the rebound ahead will surpass the Jun high. The US Dollar Index has been trading sideways since breaking out in early Jun. A pullback below 79 would be bearish for the index. In line with the expected rebound of the US stockmarket soon, Asian markets should also bounce back but are unlikely to surpass the Jun highs. A rally above the Jun highs would indicate that a more bullish wavecount is taking place.

Any technical rebounds from the yesterday's near 2% loss is likely to be muted and short-lived with the STI still on track to head for our initial key support at 2194 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent surge from 1455 to 2424).

Any negative breakout from the 2194 level could mean further correction towards the major support at 2053 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the same rally), which seems unlikely to be tested at this point in time.

Next Resistance level: 2400 (Psychological cap)
Immediate Resistance level: 2300 (Psychological cap)
STI Current: 2226.10 (Last close: -1.8%)
Immediate Support Level: 2194 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of Mar rally)
Next Support Level: 2053 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of Mar rally)

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