Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Swiber - Latest 21.3% plunge from historic $1.08 resistance

The stock is undergoing a sizeable correction on similar scale as mid-May when it plunged 23.6% from 97.5c to 74.5c.

Due to failure of 4 attempts to clearly break historic $1.07 resistance at end-May (highs of $1.06 to $1.08 reached) it has fallen 21.3% to 85c low yesterday below another multi-year 94.5c support and close to the next one at 82.5c.

A repeat of the mid-May plunge will take it exactly to 82.5c, which should be a strong support, more so now that the counter is trading below its 13-day MA buy signal (96c) for the 8th day in a row.

Surprisingly during the mid-May correction Swiber held up well above this MA and this is the longest stretch since the March 23.5c bottom that this is happening.

A 38.2% retracement of the run-up from 23.5c to $1.08 ie to 76c (near mid-May low of 74.5c) is unlikely.

This is because longer term MAs are all bullish with the 50 and 200 days making a golden cross recently while the 100 days is heading towards another cut with 200-days.

RSI at 51.3 is at lowest since end-April 46.2 at point when it broke out past 50c. The weekly MACD is still on the rise having cut its MA.

With the stock out of downtrend channel a trading range around 83-94c is likely as the stock builds a new base for another assault at $1.06-08 in coming weeks.

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